Sunday, August 05, 2007

Emini Trading with CT


On Friday the 1476.00-1475.75 zone on the SP futures was broken early and the pressure was on as the market fell below the Thursday lows in the early going. After a rebound into early afternoon fizzled, the market rolled over again around 2 pm.

There was an attempt to rebound from just over the 1454.75-1454.25 zone on the SP futures, but the market couldn't get legs and the market sold off steadily into the4 pm close for stocks. The futures were able to rebound into their close as some shorts took cover.

One indicator flashed that used to be a great signal of capitulation. The closing Trin was 3.37 on Friday. Until the big bear market of 2000-2002, that was rare and would mark a trading low of importance (within 7 trading hours). In the 1980's and 1990's, that extreme was rarely seen. So, I went into my daily spreadsheet and looked for day's that had a closing Trin of 3.00 or higher starting in January of 1995. From then until March 2000, it only happened twice...

Here's a list:
OCT27,97 10.49
JAN09,98 3.63
APR14,00 4.31
MAR12,01 3.42
SEPT03,02 3.42
DEC27,02 3.49
MAR04,03 3.70
MAR10,03 5.81
MAR24,03 5.01
MAR22,04 3.37
FEB27,07 15.77
MAR13,07 3.60
AUG03,07 3.36
The market has tended to rebound, at least, when there is that much panic selling. However, let's not hang our hat on one indicator. Just beware that the conditions are at..... (

Monday - CT will probably enter the market long overnight. If you are wary of overnight trading, look for any opportunity to go long at Friday's closing price on the ES Emini before or after the opening bell. We will look to cover our long position at or near the midpoint of Friday's daily candle.

As always,
Pray Hard and Trade Safe!

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