Friday, October 31, 2008

Turning a Loss Into a Lesson - Doug Goeckel / Masters of Excellence

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How To Turn A Loss into A Lesson

Every trade I trade does not equate into a profit. In that same thought, my high probability trades DO allow my profits to outweigh losses. This very simple math is how my trading account began to compound. If anyone tells you that all their trades are profitable, RUN TO THE HILLS! I have read through many Internet sites that have boasted that you can make millions, you will never have losses, do it their way because it is the only way to trade successfully. Now for the big one, they have the one and only secret to the stock market.

We know there is no holy grail. There are however, probabilities and mastery of trading that we CAN focus on. We CAN be profitable. We CAN develop the mind - set of a successful trader. We CAN learn from the market and make the necessary adjustments in our trading structure that will turn a loss into a lesson. The only possible loss is if I do not learn anything from a trade, and I learn from all my trades. So it is impossible for me to lose. That is where I would like to draw attention to this week.

I journal my trades, I write down all the set ups and where and when I take a trade. If the trade does not result in a financial profit, I then look back through the particular trade and I figure out what I need to learn. It can be as simple as that trade did not profit and was in the range of acceptable risk. There was no conclusive reason, but I validate that my risk/reward ratios are accurate. I now take it one step further. I review my trades that did not profit and analyze whether or not there is a theme that runs through all of those particular trades. If I find a particular HPT that is producing a financial loss more than the tested allowable percentage, I invest the time needed in my journal and find the similarities. At that stage of my trade journal analysis, I make the adjustments within the HPT itself. I have learned a valuable lesson, which resulted in a trade adjustment, and now I begin retesting the adjusted HPT until it produces a result of 60% or higher. Turn a loss into a lesson.

One the other hand, if I find that over the weeks I trade a particular High Probability Trade and that those trades result in significant profits on a consistent basis. Reviewing my journal has taught me another valuable lesson.

It is essential that you have a mentor or a teacher to learn from. I have stressed that from day one. It is worth every dollar spent. I have a mentor and I continue to learn. I continue to be supported on an ongoing basis. I also have my trading journal to reference and analyze. My 3 month class can take seasoned traders to a new level. My class can take new traders on a journey of possibilities. If you are interested in taking my class, please feel free to contact me doug@excglobal.com. It is a deep desire of mine to teach believers that there is a way to profit in this market. I trade a market where it does not matter whether or not the overall market is going up or down. I can teach you how to make money even in this market. If you do not take my class, I urge you to find a mentor or a coach that CAN teach you how to be profitable. I would not recommend “going it alone.” Set yourself up for success.

My last bit of advice is Journal, Journal, Journal your trades. It is a vital part of trading.

Best of Success!

Douglas Goeckel

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Prosperity for God's People - Emini Futures Trading / Wednesday October 22, 2008

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Zaner & Stack Trade

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Monday, October 13, 2008

The Ten Trillion Dollar Bailout and Coming Inflation Holocaust / Savant Commentary via Investment Intelligence Research

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Investment Intelligence Research
THE TEN TRILLION DOLLAR BAILOUT

'The Triple Decade Impact' we wrote about two years ago is upon us as is 'The Trillion Dollar Killing', the Implications of which could lead to an "Inflation Holocaust" not unlike Iceland or Zimbabwe...

Two years ago, a PhD told me Gold could reach $38,000 per ounce in this next SuperCycle and being one to 'Never say Never' I could not bring myself to summarily dismiss this notion as another crackpot in the World of Goldbugs and with the intrinsic value of Gold based on cumulative inflation already at around $3,150 per ounce, it certainly validates some of the more conservative forecasts for Gold, at anywhere from our own long held target of $1,785, to thousands higher.

What Investors need to understand is just how wealthy they may become if anything like the above occurs and even minimum upside targets, will render quality juniors to soar 10 to 20 fold from here.
To put this into perspective, one needs to look back and see what happened to other countries currencies and understand just how much investing in Gold, not only might have made for you, but eminently more importantly, how much it would have saved and preserved your buying power from the devastating effects of sudden and rapid devaluation not unlike what just occurred in Iceland and catastrophically in Zimbabwe and of course back in the Weimar Republic of yesteryear and many subsequent international devaluations.

Putting aside all of the assets in Zimbabwe, such as real estate, cars and other wealth: If you were the only citizen in the country to own an ounce of Gold just years ago and no one else had any other Gold with only Zimbabwean money as competitor, you would theoretically be the richest citizen in the country today. And, how rich would you be? How about a Zimbabwean Quadrillionaire. Yes that's right. With inflation running at the rate of about a million and half per cent year to date, you could be worth One Thousand Trillion Dollars.

In case you haven't heard, before they removed about 10 Zeros, US$2 Dollars was worth about Z$10 Billion and a shopping cart was estimated at going on a Z$Trillion, according to one BBC reporter there and that was over a month ago, before a whole new vicious cycle ultra-compounded to an even higher inflation rate.

In our Triple Decade Effect scenario published herein, we warned of the coming credit meltdown and went on to explain how another period not unlike the 1970's was upon us, and whether we like it or not, there was no way out of this forthcoming maelstrom that is now finally arrived, with mind-numbing catastrophic impact, that is a real mind-bender for everyone around the World and is going to take a monumental effort and eventually up to 10 Trillion Dollar bailout Worldwide to avert a World that could truly spin out of control.

The Triple Decade Impact was the first phase of our scenario and that is now happening live in real time. So far, the only development that has yet to unfold is a sudden lack of confidence in the US Dollar, that aready is impacting other currencies around the World, most notably those of Iceland, Mexico, Canada, Australia and all Euromonies over recent months and one wonders, when the contrived stacking up of the US Dollar, will suffer a similar, if not worse fate than all of its counterparts, as the true horror of all of its fundamentals are exposed and recognized for all the World to see. That is the big question and the answer has to be: It is merely a function of time. And as have gone the US's almighty markets, so too the 'Almighty Dollar' will go, as there is no God given right ordained to this currency, that it should somehow remain almighty for ever...

That is simply not going to happen and the scary part of this whole scenario is that the actions of today will result in a meltdown in the Dollar perhaps not unlike the speed with which the Dow has fallen since its high 13,136 plus double top back on May 19 to its sickening lows in days just past, in the final unraveling of the US unit and perhaps many other World currencies in tandem. Almost everything has been falling in value against Gold in recent months, indicating its increasing intrinsic value and its only reason for being thus far so subdued, might be explained by forced liquidation having little choice but to offload their most coveted of all investments at this time as a matter of survival and not for the love of the World's most revered metal.

On countless occasions analysts have declared the Dollar's day of reckoning is nigh and when Gold finally begins to move higher of its own volition, and running its own race, independently of currencies or other influences, then we will know, that the next leg of the Grand Super-Cycle will have begun, as Gold explodes in a third wave to the upside, that could last by our calculations, as long as 10 years hence to up to 18 total.

Numerous Billionaires, including Warren Buffet have collectively lost Trillions over the past year and one would think they would be diving into Gold, to protect their dwindling assets, just in case... And that time is fast approaching, because fears of declining currencies around the World, will force these Billionaires to re-assess their situations and go for Gold. Take Dubai for example, the implosion in oil prices has popped the biggest bubble of them all and one would have thought that the most logical switch at the time might've been out of Oil at $147 and into Gold, seeing as an ounce of Gold now buys about 11 Barrels instead of 7...

The difference today is they are gripped by a fear that is making them wake up and re-evaluate their entire situations and given that so many suspect bubble currencies are tied in with the US Dollar could well mean that these long held relationships could drag down the Dollar should panic transfer of assets occur out of such related jurisdictions. Just look at what happened to Mexico and Canada over recent days to see that.

Speaking of Mexico, which went through its own similar meltdown to the US today back '94~'95, its money crashed in value from around 3 pesos to the Dollar to 14 in a matter of weeks and earlier in the decade was the equivalent of 2 to 1 $US. Interestingly, prior to its devaluation, which incidentally looks a lot like the US vs the Yuan in the same programmed devaluation scenario, (be careful what you wish for ie a weaker Dollar against the Chinese currency, as you might get a lot more than you bargained for, a la Mexico did). Had you invested in 1 ounce of Gold prior to the Peso's devaluation, it would've cost the equivalent of 700 in today's pesos in 1992 or so, and by March of '95, that same ounce of Gold would have been worth about P$4,200 and by this week, with the latest peso devaluation of 30% since August 4, that oz would have been worth at its most extreme point of decline, somewhere around P$13,410 pesos. Further proof, of Gold's rising value.

Now for the more scary scenario that just unfolded last week that has implications almost too awful to even contemplate and the stark reality of just how rapidly and dramatically, the US Dollar could without warning completely unravel, just as rapidly as the stock market has over just the past five months or so and we truly believe that this could begin at any time henceforth over the coming year to 18 months and it would do well to remember that in the 4th quarter of 1978, following a substantial correction almost exactly 30 years ago in the price of Gold, from $235 down to $193, that just 15 months later, was trading 4.5 times higher at $875.

We are believers in the 'Warning shots across the bows theory' ie, there's almost always a microcosm type event that precedes a larger and much more dramatic event in the offing. The collapse of Bear Stearns and other institutions have turned out to be harbingers of the larger market meltdown and the same can be said perhaps of what has happened in Zimababwe, which might be an extreme or isolated case, is still a glaring example of what can happen, but perhaps far more ominous implications, occurred in Iceland last week...

The second phase of our nightmare scenario first published herein a couple of years ago, could already be unfolding along the lines of the Icelandic meltdown that began in earnest last week, and is now in full force.

That is the Trillion Dollar Killing... Let's look at what happened in Iceland first to get an inkling of what this is all about and how this scenario could spread to the US in the coming months with equally dramatic impact:

When looked in the context of inflows of capital over recent years, Iceland in a way resembles a microcosm of the US Economy, that like Iceland has relied heavily on significant inflows of capital, to fuel its growth and maintain its newly inflated lifestyle and insatiable appetite for imported goods and growing energy use.

To attract foreign capital, its Treasury and Money Markets have been viewed as a safe haven for the more conservative capital that now amounts in the Trillions and then the higher yielding appeal of the Sub-prime related investments was offered to the more racy investors around the World, wanting to make fast money.

Iceland, apparently had the same idea, that like a Ponzi scheme that is too good to be true, attracted tens of Billions of Dollars from offshore through on line savings accounts offering as much as 7% yield something a great many investors around the World viewed as a deal too good to pass up... Unfortunately, it became increasingly difficult for the Icelanders to deliver on their 7% promised yield and as early depositers began to withdraw funds, the Icelandic Krona fell over the course of the last 9 months from 58 to the Dollar to 144 in recent days as the collapsing currency accelerated to the downside in a near freefall, as the whole mess became exposed and Iceland's Banks began collapsing one after the other, leaving investors savings in a in a mad scramble to be repatriated at any price, in much the same way as pesos fled Mexico in the 1990's.

And just as Mexico's stock market collapsed and lost nearly 90% of its value, so too Iceland's markets sold off precipitously, as the whole country had gotten pretty rich on Iceland's deregulated banking binge, were now left with deflated values, that like Russia with its 60% losses, has closed its markets till further notice...

If it were not for the Russians and Swedes coming to Iceland's rescue, the country would be in default and is technically bankrupt today, because it cannot make good on deposits, as tens of billions are totally lost...

Does this remind you of anything? The only difference is the US has not yet reached the levels of near total insolvency that Iceland has and its currency has yet to collapse but the parallels are nonetheless apparent.

And that is the meaning of this message: The Trillion Dollar Killing is the next shoe to drop, as inevitably as has already begun: US Treasury Bond prices have already plummeted and that means that foreign buyers and locals at higher prices are already losing big on their investments and should the US Dollar sooner or later begin to collapse and should interest rates rise to defend the currency, something that tends to occur almost automatically in banana republic currencies when they are under pressure as a defense mechanism then the US Dollar could go into a death spiral decline a la Iceland or Mexico as investors around the World scramble to sell Treasury Bonds at any price and move the proceeds out of US Currency, out of the same fear that has driven other denominations to suffer a similar fate. And just as with the stock market decline, it is every man for himself and every nation alike, when Trillions are at stake. And thus, the stage is perilously set for a time that may not be too far hence, when the US has to pay the piper and the enormity of its actual $10 Trillion in current debt, $93 Trillion in future liabilities and anywhere from 70 to 700 Trillion in derivatives come home to roost, the only repository of trust in a World of collapsing currencies, will ultimately, be Gold.

And while Gold bullion or ETF's is one way to own Gold, quality juniors with proven reserves and imminent production, will probably be the most highly leveraged way to profit from future Gold price increases, apart from the more risky pursuit of futures or options. A doubling in the price of Gold could potentially equate to at least 20 times upside potential, in one extremely undervalued issue we particularly like, trading at a mere 100th of its proven in ground reserves today and a tripling of Gold could lead to 30 times upside and so on.
Readers may recall how we called the market highs on both July 19 and October 11 of 2007 and have been exceedingly bearish on stocks ever since and the warning is repeated: Just as many were complacent with their investments, thinking nothing like this could ever happen, now that it has happened, it is all the more important to being critically important in terms of financial survival and future prosperity if at all to be totally prepared for such an eventuality to occur, because as we've already seen, these kinds of events can occur with mind-numbing speed and intensity, that most investors are not well enough prepared to handle. The key is to be positioned ahead of time, in a solid company that has strong cash-flow potential, even at lower Gold prices, that can leverage itself exponentially, from multiple increases in Gold to the power of 10. We've identified and invested in one such company and several others, that comprise our portfolio of options to deal with whatever we have to and our record in calling of Gold moves to date has been exemplary, without missing a single upside move of significance during its entire bull run and exiting near the highs each time.
As for the Ten Trillion Dollar Bailout: Even before all this selling frenzy began in earnest, we proclaimed it'd probably take at least $10 Trillion or so to fix this unprecedented "Triple Contraction Scenario" wherein the economy, markets and real estate are similarly and severely impacted. And now, fortuitously, in light of the above, and at least to try and expand the economy again, the authorities may have finally gotten the memo and are ready to swing into high action and move mountains to turn things around. It can only be helpful to Gold as we see it, but the numbers are rising and by our count could approach $10 Trillion on a leveraged lending basis, now that the Treasury has proposed a capital injection for banks as a better use of the $700 Billion Rescue package. On a 10 to 1 loan leverage, that would equate to $7 Trillion of real teeth and added to the Fed's, nearly $2 Trillion war chest and monies already expended Worldwide approaching $1 Trillion, in a way we would appear to be theoretically at least on track for $10 Trillion, or lest we forget, Britain's bold move which at 400 Billion Pounds equates to $700 Billion, which adjusted for US population size gives the UK the equivalent of $3.5 Trillion that without lending leverage kind of makes the US $700 Billion look puny.

All of this does not obfuscate the inevitable need for all bank deposits to be fully guaranteed, as sacrosant and essential to restoring confidence in the normal conducting of business, and while such measure could portend to upwards of $100 Trillion for the US alone, it will have to be extended Worldwide by arrangement.


The Panic of 2008 - How it Could Be Our Silver Lining for Gold, Silver and Stocks

There will be more to come, we can be sure of that. This may only be the beginning of this bailout out and it could be a lot larger than $10 Trillion before it's all over and it will have impact, in fact we believe the US and World economies could rebound quite sharply, over the next year to 18 months, so the news, is not all bad.

We are students of history and to us, this looks an awful lot like the Panic of 1907 and when you look at the early 1900's there are some distinct similarities in market behavior, between the different centuries. At the turn of the 20th Century there was euphoria just as when we turned the Millennium then there was the Rich Man's panic of 1903: Remind you of anything? Like the "Formerly Rich" dot.commers panic of 2002~2003, when $7 Trillion was wiped off stockmarket values and the intriguing similarities between the Panic of 1907 versus 2008 which looks like a carbon copy thus far and percentage wise has almost met its mark, tends to suggest that like the Panic of 1907 could literally turn on a dime and potentially recover all of its losses over the next 18 months or so, would certainly be most welcomed by all and sundry and given the potential size of the forthcomng bailout and aggressive actions by governments, including the likelihood of truly massive infrastructure projects, to boost the economy even further, the idea certainly looks credible, but will surely not come without cost. Boosting the US economy, will likely get Global growth back on track and it could be back to business as usual before too long and even if the Dollar falters, it would be even more bullish for the US Economy, as the provider of much of the infrastructure for World growth. But re-kindling growth will re-ignite inflation and thus the next 15 months, could look a lot like Gold 30 years ago month for month as Gold prices rise inexorably and relentlessly higher just as they did in '79, rising 4.5 fold over that period.

Should such a scenario occur, it could send Gold prices as high as $4,000 per ounce from current levels or more and that would mean our # 1 contender emerging mid-tier Gold play could be looking at 40 X upside...

We especially value the writings of a great many analysts and contributors, but feel worthy enough only to write upon occasion, when we have such compelling research or reasoning, it perhaps merits contributing what may be something of import readers can hopefully employ to their benefit. Whether we're facing what Jim Rogers is calling a forthcoming "Inflation Holocaust" that one day might mean $38,000 per oz Gold, or something less severe at around one tenth of that, the message is the same 'Be prepared for eventualities'.

If you are interested in subscribing to a service that took close to 300 points per contract out of the S&P in 30 hours over October 9th & 10th and almost $100 out of Gold, over the same period. This could be for you.

For details of our 24/7 Real-Time Advisory Services and Special Situations Portfolio Email savant@mail.org

"My difinitive goal is to make money each and every day. That is my discipline."Aristotle Onassis - World's Richest Man - Circa 1970

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Interview with Doug Goeckel / Masters of Excellence - Thursday October 9, 2008

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In these trying economic times, who do we trust?

Listen to today's interview with Doug Goeckel and find out.

If you have questions for Doug or would like to learn more about his mentoring program - doug@excglobal.com

Prosperity for God's People - Emini Futures Trading / Thursday October 9, 2008

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Prosperity for God's People - Emini Futures Trading / Wednesday October 8, 2008

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Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Masters of Excellence w/ Doug Goeckel

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BROKEN RULES equated to BROKEN CONFIDENCE


I believe that it is vitally important that we visit the topic of respecting the rules that each of you have for your trading systems.

During market volatility, it is critical that you follow the rules you set.

Let me give you an example, during my class we begin with each student designing a trading system that will work for them. Within that structure there are rules such as entry , bar action , time frames, exits so on and so forth. If you enter a trade, I focus that each must stick to the rules. If the exit is to exit within a certain profit target , then you must exit at that target. If your structure for your trading system is to trail you trade with a trailing stop loss, then trail it with a trailing stop loss. My own experience with trading, as well as with numerous students, I have found, is that if you violate your rules once you will do it again. We are again having confidence in our self as a trader that has designed a trade with high probabilities of success. We have designed a high probability trade that give us a profit from the trade that we have entered into. If you decide that the market will give you more and you begin to adjust your trades as the market is moving, you may gain on that single trade, however subconsciously you have violated your own rules and structure. This will subconsciously begin to chip away at the confidence that you have gained by developing your high probability trade. This is important, if you have violated your own rules and structure, you have subconsciously began to chip away at the confidence that you have gained as a trader.

One of the most underdeveloped trading skills that a trader needs is confidence. You have to strengthen and build up your confidence in one self to trade successfully. If you begin to violate yourself, it is logged into your subconscious and your next trade, or maybe the third trade you will again begin to adjust your trade mid stream. The result is once again simply stated, you have begun to chip away at your confidence. A trader without confidence is a man or woman living life without an essential part of him or herself.

Market volatility is a time where we need to develop a healthy level of mental fitness. Stick to your rules, stick to your high probability trades. Stick to your structure and your confidence will continue to be built.

Best of Success !
Douglas Goeckel
doug@excglobal.com

Prosperity for God's People - Tuesday October 7, 2008

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Thursday, October 02, 2008

Santa Fe Gold Corp SFEG - CEO Report on Summit Gold/Silver Progress

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Today's Interview w/ CEO Dr Pierce Carson

Santa Fe Gold Updates Progress of Construction at
Summit Silver-Gold Mine
Monday September 29, 9:30 am ET

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Santa Fe Gold Corp, a U.S.-based mining and exploration enterprise focused on gold, silver, copper and industrial minerals, today reported that construction is on track at its Summit mine and processing facilities in southwestern New Mexico and that processing of silver-gold ore is anticipated to begin the first quarter of 2009. In February 2008, the company announced it was proceeding with mine and mill construction, following the completion of $13.5 million of required financing.

“We are pleased to announce we are on track to achieve our twelve-month construction schedule,” said Dr. W. Pierce Carson, President and CEO. “We plan to have an initial ore stock pile ready for processing when construction of the processing facility is completed and is ready to receive ore. Based on current outlooks and barring unforeseen delays, we anticipate processing to begin in the first quarter of 2009.”

At the Banner mill site, work is being carried out by a force of approximately 40 people coordinated by a lead engineering and construction firm under the supervision of the company’s project manager and independent engineer. All of the major items of equipment to be installed during construction are onsite at the mill site. Refurbishment and installation of the ball mill, flotation plant, and crushing and conveying system are underway. Upgrades of electrical and water systems also are in progress.

At the Summit mine, the company has hired its own mining crew and purchased necessary surface and underground mining equipment. Development of an underground decline has begun and is projected to intersect the main ore zone in December 2008.

The company also has made good progress in identifying and hiring the work force for operations, and currently employs approximately 18 people dedicated full time to the Summit project. Although it will be necessary to hire additional people, key management positions have been filled and core operating personnel have been employed for both the mine and the mill.

Carson said, “Our entire team is excited by the progress we are making at Summit. We are very much focused on achieving production as soon as possible. Looking forward, our goal is to produce significant cash flow from current holdings while creating a portfolio of quality exploration and development projects that will ensure future revenue growth. We believe the company is well positioned to take advantage of the current attractive gold and silver prices and to increase long-term shareholder value.”

About Santa Fe Gold Corp:
Santa Fe Gold Corp is a U.S.-based mining and exploration enterprise focused on acquiring and developing gold, silver, copper and industrial mineral properties. The company owns the Summit silver-gold property and a mill site and processing equipment in southwestern New Mexico; mineral lease rights to the Ortiz gold property in north-central New Mexico, believed to contain two million ounces of gold; the Black Canyon mica mine and processing facility near Phoenix, Arizona; and a large resource of micaceous iron oxide (MIO) in western Arizona. Santa Fe Gold intends to build a portfolio of high-quality, diversified mineral assets with an emphasis on precious metals. To learn more about the company, visit http://santafegoldcorp.com .

Prosperity for God's People - Emini Futures Trading / Thursday October 2, 2008

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