Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Prosperity for God's People - Tuesday March 31, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(SPX)(DIA)(DJIA)

Today's show was short and did not offer us a trade. We wanted to buy 790 but the swing low was 791.50









Update on last night's trade -

Monday, March 30, 2009

Late Night w/ CT

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Rarely are we up this time of night, but we were, we spotted this, and it just looked to good to pass up. We have a target of 780, a stop of 790 and we're off to see the Sandman... zzzzzzzzzzzzz


"When It's All Over The People Won't Care So Much About What They Make As What They Do" - Karl Marx or Timmy Geithner?

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)(DJIA)(INDU)

How about BOTH! Suprised? Don't be. The indoctrination of the Great Deception has officially begun...

Gold Going as High as $1,080: BlackRock's Hambro











On the show today at 783 we entered a limit order to sell short at 786. We were filled at 786 and the low of the session was 775.50.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

You've Been Terminated

As the CEO of this business that employs 140 people, I have accepted the fact that Barack Obama is our new President, and that our taxes and government fees will now increase in a BIG way.

To compensate for this additional overhead, I figure that the clients will have to see an increase in our fees of about 8% but since we cannot raise those prices right now due to the dismal state of our economy, we will have to lay off several of our employees instead. This unfortunate economic reality has really been eating at me for a while, as we believe we are family here and I didn't know how to choose who will have to go.

After giving it considerable thought, this is what I did: I strolled thru our parking lot and found 11 Obama bumper stickers on our employees' cars and have decided these folks will be the first to be laid off. I can't think of a more fair way to approach this problem.

They wanted change; I gave it to them.

If you have a better idea, let me know.

Sincerely,

The Boss

A Quick Follow Up On Friday's Trade

The Sunday night session is now underway and we can see that our 5th and final opportunity to sell 817 on Friday turned out to be the best of them all.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

The Pope is Pissed

(QQQQ)(SPY)(SPX)(DIA)(DJIA)

Heck, I'm pissed and I'm not even Catholic. (just old and cranky)
I admit this guy has a really bad wig, but he does make a really great point.



And yes thanks to the Bozo from Brazil we have finally unraveled the credit crunch.



On Friday's show we found our points lurking between 817 and 813.50.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

China and France Now Economic Advisors to U.S.

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(SPX)(INDU)

Beware those who appear to agree with CFRN on the surface, but may simply be another player in the "Great Deception". That's right, you heard it here first. Let me say it again, really slow.... this - is - not - the - next - Great - Depression....this - is - the - Great - Deception which we are being sold and it may very well end America and Capitalism as we know it... if we buy it.

I DON'T BUY IT!



We opened the show looking for an upside target of 828 which could lead to a downside target of 800. It took almost the entire show (2 hours) to finally reach the 828 upside target. We were engrossed in our chat with David from PageTrader and failed to pull the trigger when we hit our spot on air. The good news is, important prices are almost always tested. Right? See the chart and see what we mean.

Since we were convinced early on that we wanted to be short off of 828, couldn't we have just got long to that spot instead of waiting to get there to go short? Yep... BUT, that did not fit our trade. So we waited, and waited, and waited, and the trade came right to us.

I just scanned the Talking Heads and everyone (i mean everyone) is looking for a continuation of the rally. I'm still looking for a test of 800. We popped slightly higher on the Globex session and as I type we are back to 826 where we closed.

As Always....
Pray Hard & Trade Safe!

CT









A Bailout in Disguise
by Bill Bonner
London, England


Three cheers for Topolanek!

Never heard of him? Neither had we until this morning. But on the front page of today's Financial Times, we discover two extraordinary things. Topolanek is the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic (and coincidentally, president of the European Union). And, he has a very accurate road map.

"The US is repeating mistakes from the 1930s," he says, "such as wide- ranging stimuluses, protectionist tendencies and appeals, the Buy American campaign and so on. All these steps, their combination and their permanency, are the road to hell."

We've said so ourselves. Many times. But we are surprised to find the president of the world's biggest and richest economy - Europe - say so. It made us feel funny...odd...as if we weren't alone in the world after all...as if we had a friend. And a friend in a high place.

At least, he was in a high place this week. He lost a non-confidence vote in his the Czech parliament on Tuesday...causing a stir in Brussels. No one knows how the European central government functions - certainly not the Europeans.

But as near as we can tell, it's a healthier system than the United States. The presidency rotates...with each member nation getting a turn. So, when the president of the EU says something, you can ignore him; he'll be gone before the milk goes bad.

Meanwhile, Europe's central bank seems to be of the same mind as its president.

While other central banks print up extra currency to help bailout their economies, the European Central Bank hardly seems to notice. Unlike the central banks of Britain, Japan and the United States, it hasn't cut rates to zero...and it isn't printing money. The economy will get itself out of the slump faster if the bank remains steadfast in its long term objectives of sound money and stable interest rates, says Trichet.

Well, as we Irish would say, "Tree cheers for Trichet, too!"

In America, the scammy bailouts come faster than European presidents. But each one gets a little cleverer at disguising what is really going on.

The idea behind all the bailout programs is always the same - to stick the losses onto someone who doesn't deserve them.

Of course, the stickers tell us not to ask questions; it's a national emergency! But when the stickees - the taxpayers - see what actually is done with the bailout money, they get a little huffy. So, now the stickers have a new plan: a public/private partnership, which makes it sound like Wall Street is helping to bail itself out.

Finally, the feds are going to harness the private sector...and get the people who caused the crisis to help get us out if it. Now, investors and government will be working together, as equals, to solve this problem. But if you believe that...well...you are Tom Friedman. Which is to say, you are a moron.

Inviting investors into the game looks good on paper, but what's really going on? The losses are the losses. Why would investors want a part of them?

Of course, they wouldn't...unless they were paid to play along.

The public is fed up with bailouts. So, the feds have disguised this new one as an investment scheme. The lumpen yahoos are invited to imagine that "capitalists are now going to help solve the problem they caused" as it was described in the French press. They delude themselves into believing investors are willingly going to buy into losing positions...and somehow make them winning ones. "Win...win...win..." is what they'd like to believe.

But the game is poker. And for every winner, there's a loser. And the big fellow who has just entered the game is every poker player's dream. He is almost infinitely rich and infinitely stupid. Before the night is over, investors are going to clean him out.

And the American taxpayer is getting fed up...knowing full well that none of this bailout money will ever make an appearance in his personal account. We've warned our dear readers before: you can't expect the government to bail you out...you're going to have to take care of that for yourself. That's why we've put together our special "Emergency 'Personal Bailout' Plan. Get yours here.

The Dow rose 89 points yesterday. As near as we can tell, the rebound is still going on. For stocks globally, March has been the best month, so far, since 1989.

But don't mistake a rebound for a real bull market. House prices in California were down 41% last month, over prices from a year ago. Airlines are expected to lose $5 billion this year. IBM announced a further 5,000 job cuts. German business sentiment is at a 26-year low...

In short, this correction has a long way to go before it is over. By that time, most people will have stopped caring.

And now, we turn to Ian in Baltimore for more news:

"The U.S. Treasury auctioned off $34 billion in five-year notes yesterday - barely," writes Ian in today's issue of The 5 Min. Forecast.

"Demand for government debt was so low the Treasury had to adjust the bond yields mid auction, from 1.8% to 1.85%. Five basis points might not seem like a big deal, but it certainly turned heads at the Big Board:

phpsPHsYD

"Even more notable," continues Ian, "this bond fallout happened on the same day the Federal Reserve announced its first series of Treasury bond purchases. Bernanke and company snatched up $7.5 billion of their $300 billion U.S. Treasury purchase program... and investors didn't seem to care. So much for the trader idiom, 'don't fight the Fed'."

Accumulation Moves Santa Fe Gold - SFEG Higher

(SFEG)(GG(KGC)(SPY)(ABX)




Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TMBuy

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional IndicatorBuy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo ChannelBuy
20 Day Moving Average vs PriceBuy
20 - 50 Day MACD OscillatorBuy
20 Day Bollinger BandsBuy

Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 89713

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel IndexBuy
50 Day Moving Average vs PriceBuy
20 - 100 Day MACD OscillatorBuy
50 Day Parabolic Time/PriceBuy

Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 107281

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel IndexBuy
100 Day Moving Average vs PriceBuy
50 - 100 Day MACD OscillatorBuy

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 79967

Overall Average: 100% - Buy
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

1.2200 1.0600 1.2200 1.3800

What does One Trillion Dollars Look Like?


All this talk about "stimulus packages" and "bailouts"...

A billion dollars...

A hundred billion dollars...

Eight hundred billion dollars...

One TRILLION dollars...

What does that look like? I mean, these various numbers are tossed around like so many doggie treats, so I thought I'd take Google Sketchup out for a test drive and try to get a sense of what exactly a trillion dollars looks like.

We'll start with a $100 dollar bill. Currently the largest U.S. denomination in general circulation. Most everyone has seen them, slighty fewer have owned them. Guaranteed to make friends wherever they go.


$100

A packet of one hundred $100 bills is less than 1/2" thick and contains $10,000. Fits in your pocket easily and is more than enough for week or two of shamefully decadent fun.

$10,000

Believe it or not, this next little pile is $1 million dollars (100 packets of $10,000). You could stuff that into a grocery bag and walk around with it.

$1,000,000 (one million dollars)

While a measly $1 million looked a little unimpressive, $100 million is a little more respectable. It fits neatly on a standard pallet...

$100,000,000 (one hundred million dollars)

And $1 BILLION dollars... now we're really getting somewhere...

$1,000,000,000 (one billion dollars)

Next we'll look at ONE TRILLION dollars. This is that number we've been hearing so much about. What is a trillion dollars? Well, it's a million million. It's a thousand billion. It's a one followed by 12 zeros.

You ready for this?

It's pretty surprising.

Go ahead...

Scroll down...

Ladies and gentlemen... I give you $1 trillion dollars...

$1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion dollars)

Notice those pallets are double stacked.
...and remember those are $100 bills.

So the next time you hear someone toss around the phrase "trillion dollars"... that's what they're talking about.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Opening the Door for New World Order - Here's Timmy...

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(INDU)(DJIA)

And they wonder why no one showed up for the Treasury Auction?




Geithner "open" to China proposal

Geithner, at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the U.S. is "open" to a headline-grabbing proposal by the governor of the China's central bank, which was widely reported as being a call for a new global currency to replace the dollar, but which Geithner described as more modest and "evolutionary." (more)

Fed Begins Buying U.S. Treasuries
by Bill Bonner
London, England

Write in your diary...save today's newspapers...remember what you did today. Most historians won't even notice, but today is a big, big day.

Today is the day the Fed begins buying U.S. Treasuries. Britain is doing it already. So is Japan. Why shouldn't we? What's a few trillion extra...just between friends?

The scope of the project is immense.

Do you remember how it works, dear reader? When you buy a U.S. Treasury bond, you pay for it with real money - or, at least as real as dollars get. Money changes hands. No net increase in the money supply. But when the Fed buys a Treasury bond it creates the money to buy it...and thus the money supply increases. It's called "monetizing the debt" - or converting debt into currency. Given the size of upcoming Treasury purchases, the total size of the U.S. monetary base is expected to increase 500% in the months ahead.

Is there any doubt what this will mean to the dollar? To the price of gold?

Today's On-Air Trade

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Uncle Sam, Helicopter Ben, and Little Timmy Geithener Bring Wall Street to Main Street

(QQQQ)(DIA)(DJIA)(INDU)(SPY)

Isn't this how we got in trouble in the first place?
















Today's On-Air Trade

China Calls For New Reserve Currency / CT Protests Market Rally

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China calls for new reserve currency
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

Published: March 23 2009 12:16 | Last updated: March 24 2009 00:06

China’s central bank on Monday proposed replacing the US dollar as the international reserve currency with a new global system controlled by the International Monetary Fund.

In an essay posted on the People’s Bank of China’s website, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank’s governor, said the goal would be to create a reserve currency “that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies”.

Analysts said the proposal was an indication of Beijing’s fears that actions being taken to save the domestic US economy would have a negative impact on China.

“This is a clear sign that China, as the largest holder of US dollar financial assets, is concerned about the potential inflationary risk of the US Federal Reserve printing money,” said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC.

Although Mr Zhou did not mention the US dollar, the essay gave a pointed critique of the current dollar-dominated monetary system.

“The outbreak of the [current] crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflected the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system,” Mr Zhou wrote.

China has little choice but to hold the bulk of its $2,000bn of foreign exchange reserves in US dollars, and this is unlikely to change in the near future.

To replace the current system, Mr Zhou suggested expanding the role of special drawing rights, which were introduced by the IMF in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime but became less relevant once that collapsed in the 1970s.

Today, the value of SDRs is based on a basket of four currencies – the US dollar, yen, euro and sterling – and they are used largely as a unit of account by the IMF and some other international organisations.

China’s proposal would expand the basket of currencies forming the basis of SDR valuation to all major economies and set up a settlement system between SDRs and other currencies so they could be used in international trade and financial transactions.

Countries would entrust a portion of their SDR reserves to the IMF to manage collectively on their behalf and SDRs would gradually replace existing reserve currencies.

Mr Zhou said the proposal would require “extraordinary political vision and courage” and acknowledged a debt to John Maynard Keynes, who made a similar suggestion in the 1940s.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

"FT" and "Financial Times" are trademarks of the Financial Times.

© Copyright The Financial Times Ltd 2009.

BRACE FOR INFLATION-- Especially if China Dumps the Dollar

Image America: “Brace for Inflation!—Especially if China follows through on their threat and dumps the dollar in favor of a new currency.

So says Swiss America Trading Corporation CEO Craig R. Smith.

Said Craig, “In its attempt to bolster the U.S economy, the Federal Reserve has left no doubt in my mind that we are in a modern day depression – one that will be addressed by a massive expansion of the Fed balance sheet by trillions of dollars.”

Even if China does not dump the dollar, in favor of some sort of new IMF currency, we’re still in deep trouble but in a different way than in 1929 when the Fed CONTRACTED the money supply, resulting in deflation, similar to what occurred in the initial stages of the current recession that began in December of 2007.

According to Craig, had that recession had been allowed to run the normal course of a recession, we would be well on our way to recovery. But given the low tolerance for political pain in D.C., our leaders employed massive doses of spending that killed the pain but did not address the disease. Therefore, the economy now is worse off than it was before all the so-called government ‘help.’

But what is particularly troubling about the new proposed Obama financial ‘fixes’ is that Ben Bernanke is planning on EXPANDING the balance sheet of the Fed to whatever level is necessary to avoid a deeper and more prolonged recession/depression.

While this solution may look fine and dandy to Ben Bernanke, this recipe for inflation does not make the dollar look like a very good investment to China.

“This is a clear sign that China, as the largest holder of US dollar financial assets, is concerned about the potential inflationary risk of the US Federal Reserve printing money,” said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC.



Ben Bernanke's master thesis for his doctorate degree in college was the Great Depression. And why is this of particular importance to any of us? Simple. Bernanke’s assessment of the Great Depression is that the Fed acted way too late in 1929 and should have never restricted the money supply. Bernanke is a firm believer in printing money-- even to the point of throwing it out of helicopters to stimulate an ailing economy! This seeming flippant and cavalier attitude of Ben Bernanke earned him a profoundly telling nick name within the financial community of: ‘Helicopter Ben.’

Craig stated, “Last week Ben loaded the chopper with $1.125 trillion of freshly printed U.S. dollars and threw it out onto awaiting recipients. He purchased an additional $750 billion of government-guaranteed, mortgage-backed securities on top of the $500 billion he has already purchased.”

Craig also gives other ‘helicopter-esque’ so-called ‘fixes’ being offered by Mr. Bernanke, including these two:

1) The Fed agreed to buy up to $300 billion worth of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months; a move virtually never seen from the Fed. What need has the Fed to buy the safest financial instrument available other than to lower rates? This in turn will likely force Treasury holders to look for better returns in other markets. There is no other plausible explanation for such a Fed purchase.
2) Ben will also buy up to another $100 billion of agency debt for a total of $200 billion. In essence, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to $1.8 trillion from just under $900 billion. The actions announced last Wednesday may well ultimately expand the balance sheet to $3 trillion or more over the next year.

“How did the market receive this stroke of Keynesian ‘genius’?,” Craig asks, answering his own question, “Stocks rallied from down 50 to up 80 points, gold rallied from down $30 to up $30 and the dollar suffered it single worst day since 1985 losing a full 3 percent against all major currencies. Gold went up an additional $18 on Thursday while stocks dropped 80 points and the dollar received a thorough pounding. Friday fared no better with stocks down another 122 points. And after reducing interest rates to virtually zero and employing quantitative easing with little to no positive effect on the economy, Bernanke is using one of the last tools in his box of fixes: printing money—and what does that spell? I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N!”

And what is the effect of inflation on people holding dollars? Moderate inflation makes those dollars worth LESS. But runaway inflation could make those dollars WORTHLESS!—as in the case of the Weimar Republic of Germany ending up with it taking a one trillion Mark note to buy a single cup of coffee!

“Given the fact that the Chinese are holding long-term dollar denominated assets such as Treasuries, they are nervous about the value of those assets falling apart in the future,” said Smith.

Translated into layman terms: If China does not dump the dollar, we’re in a recession or a mid level recession. But if China does dump the dollar, we’re in a very, very deep doo doo, a.k.a. headed for a very bad depression, compounded with uncharacteristic depressionary inflation.

Craig says China is in a pickle. They currently hold massive amounts of long-term dollar-denominated assets, including US Treasuries. If they dump dollars, they kill America and in the process their largest customer for their cheap slave labor goods. If they hold to the theory that they want other assets other than dollars, they starve the U.S. of necessary dollars to finance our deficits.

But if for whatever China and/or the rest of the world ever stops financing our debt, it is ‘game over’ for U.S. But that is unlikely to happen since the world is so dependant on our success.

“G-20 is meeting next week with the clear intent to discuss a one world currency. That would put us in competition against other currencies for deposits. That would mean we would have to increase the rate of interest we pay on deposits to attract them. At this stage that would cripple our economy as we need low interest to refinance all the debt we have and sustain the housing market, said Craig.

“The best way to engender confidence in our dollar again would be for our government to stop spending money we do not have. That would mean an immediate halt to entitlement spending. If we put the brakes on spending tomorrow the dollar would rally. China and the world for that matter would want to lend us any amount we needed to get through our pinch knowing we have restored fiscal sanity.”

But if we don’t call a halt to the insanity and if we continue on the headlong rush toward bankruptcy by implementing the Obama administration’s agenda that demands trillions of dollars we simply do not have, countries like China may be forced to do the unthinkable: pulling the plug on our finances, and to some degree on their own finances, in order to avoid going over the cliff along with US,” concluded Smith.

Craig maintains that there are trillions of dollars on the sidelines in bank deposits, money markets, treasuries etc. and now that Ben Bernanke has printed another trillion dollars, it makes those deposits worth less as the quantity has increased. If you have 100 bushels of corn and the farmer next door grows 200 more, your corn becomes worth less as the quantity has increased without an increase in demand. It’s Economics 101. If you increase the supply while demand remains unchanged, prices drop. If you increase demand while quantity remains the same, prices go up.

Bernanke is clearly willing to exponentially increase the supply of dollars by printing as his ability to borrow dollars at this time is at zero. Who in their right mind is willing to lend dollars knowing the Fed can and will print more making what they lent worth less, especially when the rate of return is less than the rate of devaluation?

The talk of re-inflating a balloon that has burst is a joke. That is unless the fabric of the balloon has been repaired. If not, the newly pumped air escapes. So the Fed will be forced to watch this air (printed dollars) disappear into this atmosphere.

In the past, the Fed has pumped billions through low-interest loans, thus creating the "dot-com" bubble, the stock market bubble, the housing bubble and now the Treasury bubble as people seek safety. Once Treasuries burst, which should be any day now given the Fed's willingness to devalue the dollar, the recipient of the pumping will be commodities. However this time the bubble will not burst for unlike paper markets there is an actual commodity. Gold, oil, wheat, steel, copper, corn etc. cannot be created out of thin air. They are real.

And as such their price movement will be a reflection of supply and demand.

The old days of simple stock and bond portfolio strategy in planning for retirement and savings are no longer valid. Commodities and commodity-oriented companies will be a must for every investor if they wish to survive the ongoing market management of the Fed and the government. As Obama, with the assistance of Bernanke, continues to create trillions of new dollars to bring about the socialism he envisions, the long term value of the dollar will go substantially lower.

Lower dollar value translates into higher costs of living, or a lower standard of living if an individual has no way to offset raising costs and possible unemployment.

Make no mistake about it, Obama, Bernanke and Geithner are doing exactly what they said they were going to do: print and spend their way back to prosperity. Their delusional minds actually believe that can be achieved by spending money we do not have with little to no prospect of ever being able to pay it back. For Obama to suggest he can balance a budget, no less reduce the national debt, with his corrupt math is ridiculous.

If some of the predictions are accurate, we may see a doubling of the national debt in the next decade if some fiscal sanity does not return to Washington and stop this very flawed and politically expedient process that the Keynesians and socialists are pursuing.

The Obama administration made it very serious last Thursday when Congress passed legislation to tax 90 percent of the bonuses at AIG with the blessing of the White House. While that may satisfy the populist outrage festering in America about bonuses, it will do little to fix the problems – not to mention the unconstitutional nature of such actions. Taxes are a means to generate revenue to facilitate the proper functioning of government, not to punish people. If the Treasury, the Justice Department and the Fed do not see the danger in such a move, they have ignored the Constitution.

The framers in their wisdom knew the potential threat of politicians being whipped into a frenzy by an angry electorate. Thus Article One and Nine state, "No bill of attainder or ex post facto shall be passed." This was designed to assure enforcement of the separations of power and as such protected individual rights. Disputes like the bonuses should be handled by the courts, not by legislative fiat. There are also specific assurances of "due process" and "sound legislation" to keep Congress from reacting irrationally. Obama should veto this bill to fulfill his oath to protect and defend the Constitution, regardless of how repugnant these bonuses may be.

If listening to Chucky Schumer and "Bawney Fwank" wax eloquent on how they will tax all of any citizen's money away doesn't send a chill up your spine, then you are a mindless follower of Obama mania. Where is the ACLU when Frank demands to have the identities of people under death threat be made public? Maybe we should ask for a list of Barney's boyfriends?

Am I the only American who is troubled with a Congress that takes only a few hours to increase taxes to 90 percent when it takes months to pass a normal spending bill? Every member of Congress should be impeached or fired over violating the oaths they swore to the Constitution. If they want the bonus money back, sue in the courts. That is what the judicial branch is for. Of course, they can't win because these contracts existed and were even reinforced in the TARP legislation passed to "save the world." Remember?

If the American people want to hang someone, it should be Congress, the secretary of the Treasury and the president. Each of them knew full well that TARP money would be paying bonuses at AIG, just as the money would be paying Goldman Sachs the $20 billion AIG owed it. Or how about the many foreign entities that received TARP funds via payments from AIG? American taxpayer dollars used to bail out cronies at Goldman and foreign banks all with the full knowledge of Congress? That is outrageous, don't you think? But Congress has done a fine job focusing our anger on AIG employees instead of where the real responsibility should lie ... with it!

If Obama and Dodd are so set on AIG employees giving back their bonuses, maybe they should give back the $100,000 plus each received from those employees in campaign contributions. How about John Kerry, Hillary Clinton ... shall I go on?

So while the "outrage" that Congress fakes incites a nation, Rome is still burning. And Obama is on Leno talking about his handicapped bowling abilities. How presidential.

So it is simple. It's simple to even a novice. The government, with full cooperation and participation of the Fed armed with printing presses, will print money to avoid a repeat of 1929 – regardless of what the long-term consequence is to the value of the dollar every American works for, saves and spends.

The government should have never gotten involved in trying to short circuit the normal business cycle we have seen over and over again in the economy. Our economy has expanded and contracted several times over the last 100 years. It is normal. But now that the government has made it its business to stop a recession, it will quickly learn it can no more legislate us out of a recession any more than it can legislate away the principles of mathematics.

It will fail, and I would argue it already has. That is why in prior writings I have pleaded with the government to stop any more wasteful deployment of taxpayer dollars. It is making things worse, not better.

If it really wanted to address the real problem, it would reduce the size of government, stop wasteful government spending and put more of America's money back in the hands of Americans. It would encourage savings, not consumption. It would lead by example in not spending money we do not have.

But obviously to do so would demand an immediate termination of the welfare state birthed under FDR and fulfilled under Nancy Pelosi and Obama. To have 300 million Americans all dependent upon government is not freedom. It is slavery. Abraham Lincoln helped end slavery, and now Obama wants it back – this time for all Americans. He's an equal opportunity master of our time. A good crisis is a terrible thing to waste, according to Rahm Emmanuel. That is especially true if you can expand the welfare state in the process.

These recent events demand immediate decisions by "We the People." If our government is going to pursue the "run the printing presses till they burn out" approach, we must take immediate steps to protect our financial future. The government stopped listening to the American people long ago. Therefore those steps include reducing personal debt and purchasing gold, other commodities and companies that produce commodities. Writing letters and making phone calls to the deaf and dumb is a waste of time.

Inflation is coming. Bernanke, short of taking a full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal, told you so. And while you may not see it just yet in the CPI, it will be there. It may well become hyper-inflation. I am convinced our leaders are such pansies that they will not make the tough decisions or demand sacrifice from the nation. Why? They are not willing to sacrifice themselves. They have become spoiled beyond belief, totally out of touch with reality and merely want to hold on to their power. The principles that will get us back the nation we are rapidly losing be damned in the eyes of this leadership. It is all politics now.

ABOUT CRAIG SMITH…

Craig R. Smith is the CEO of Swiss America Corporation and author of many articles and books including Black Gold Stranglehold and Rediscovering Gold in the 21st Century. As an economic analyst, Craig instantly engages audiences with his common-sense perspective on national and global economic trends. Over the past two decades he has been interviewed on over 1,500 radio and TV programs including: CFRN - Christian Financial Radio Network, FOX News, CNN, CNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, PBS, CBN, TBN, Time, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Newsweek.


ON-AIR TRADE TODAY = NONE!
Momentum was on the long side but we had difficulty catching the vision. Why? God gave us a brain. We HOPE the economy rallies, but for a sustained move, there has to be more than empty rhetoric and a budget based on money "We The People" just don't have. Each trading day presents opportunities for points but today we chose to "sit it out" in silent protest of a punch drunk regime.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Fed Head Strikes Again / Keep Your Eye On Gold

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)(DJIA)(INDU)

The Bernanke Fed announced a "stunning" plan to save the world from depression on Wednesday.

The numbers were hard to follow, and they were big:

$300 billion, was the number Bloomberg reported

$1 trillion, said the New York Times.

$1.2 trillion, countered the Washington Post.

It turned out that all these numbers were correct. The Fed was going to buy $300 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds...and more of other securities - notably bonds from Fannie and Freddie.

"Quantitative easing," the papers called it.

"What's that?" investors wanted to know.

So, it took them a while to put two and two together. But when they'd done the math they began to see what we've been warning about.

"This is a very powerful and aggressive move," said the chief economist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., speaking with Bloomberg Television. "One of the reasons I've been arguing we won't have a depression is we've got a Fed chairman who understands the problem and is going to come with the right diagnosis and the right medicine."

Bloomberg continues: "With the purchases of Treasuries and housing debt, Bernanke is effectively using the Fed's powers to print money and aim it where he and other officials believe it will have the greatest impact in lowering borrowing costs."

What do we know? Maybe Ben Bernanke will be able to do what no central banker has ever done before: put in just the right amount of inflation...not too much, not too little. In the past, they tended to overdo it. There are not many examples. France, England and America in the 18th century. Practically no examples we know of in the 19th century (they'd learned their lesson!). And in the 20th century - only marginal countries...or countries with nothing left to lose...engaged in 'quantitative easing.' Germany did it in the 1920s, because her war reparations burden was greater than she could sustain. Argentina did it in the 1980s, because it owed too much money to too many foreigners. And Zimbabwe did it in 2003-2009, for reasons of its own.

There are not many examples because the consequences of over-doing it are so horrible, central bankers have generally not done it at all. Quantitative easing was always a possibility...but it was always a last resort...like blowing up the powder and spiking the guns; it was something you did when you knew you'd lost the battle already.

But here is the world's biggest economy and its oldest (arguably) and most successful government...doing something that used to be done only by desperadoes...

What does it mean? Where does it lead?

We don't know. But we don't think we want to go there.

Investors didn't seem to want to go there either. They sold off stocks and bought gold.

Gold shot up on Wednesday, after the Fed announcement. Then, it just kept going...adding another $70 yesterday. We wondered why the price hadn't already hit $1,000. It looks like it soon will...this morning it is back over $960 an ounce.

Meanwhile, oil rose above $50, the dollar took a big drop and the Dow finished down 85 points. The greenback slipped to $1.36 per euro.

As to the stock market, whether this is a pause in the rally...or a reversal, caused by the Fed announcement...we don't know. Our guess is that it's just a pause. The rebound is still unfinished business. Besides, investors aren't running scared like they were a few weeks ago. Sentiment seems more relaxed. "We'll muddle through this somehow," investors tell themselves.

And the news appears more positive...at least, if you stand on your head and look up it.

Jobless benefits, for example. They're getting paid out to a record number of recipients. But not as many as economists had expected.

The leading indicators are down 0.4% in February - but not as much as expected.

And consumers are spending less money - but not as much less as expected.

And, of course, there's the money flowing from Washington. The auto suppliers just got $5 billion. Obama's budget will probably reach $2 trillion in deficit this year. And this extra $1.2 trillion from the Fed is not exactly small change. And that's in addition to the $11.7 trillion the feds have already ponied up in their fight against a free market. Investors are going to look at this flood of cash from the Fed and figure that it has to go somewhere. Some of it is bound to go into the stock market. (more)




Thursday, March 19, 2009

Bernanke Plunges Trillion Dollar Dagger Into Heartland

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)(INDU)(DJIA)

If debt has become the chosen drug of the last generation, that makes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geitner the biggest money-pushers on the planet. The Federal Reserve’s decision to crank up the computerized printing presses to create another $1 trillion in debt left the financial markets spinning, dragging down stocks and the dollar while pushing the prices of oil and gold higher.

Conducting Talk Show interviews on this topic is Swiss America Trading Corporation CEO Craig R. Smith, who warns, “Say goodbye to the ‘safe haven’ rally in the dollar of the last six months and say hello to the next government-induced disaster: The COMMODITIES BUBBLE.”

"The Fed is financing our deficit by buying the debt issued by the Treasury,” Craig said, adding, “Common sense should tell us all that you can't re-inflate a burst bubble. The only option is to create a new inflationary bubble.”

Smith calls the Fed actions risky behavior at best, lunacy at worst, saying, “By creating $4 trillion in new debt, team Obama has put the Fed’s freshly created trillions in competition with the hard-earned trillions that investors are presently sitting on. The Fed and Treasury and Federal are pushing the dollar and the world's big dollar-holders, (think China) off a financial cliff.”

Recent headlines screamed, ‘Calls Mount for Treasury Secretary Geitner to Resign!’ Smith agrees but not because of Geitner’s past tax errors or even agreeing to outrageous AIG bonuses -- but for two other reasons: 1) Timothy Geitner failed to prevent this mortgage asset bubble while New York Federal Reserve Governor and 2) Geitner presided over the creation of the banking/credit crisis.

Craig shares with your audience that The Federal Reserve's economic toolbox includes three things; 1) managing interest rates, 2) quantitative easing of loans requirement to banks, and 3) printing/creating money. Craig contends that since the Fed has already cut interest rates to zero and eased loan requirements without success with about as much success as pushing on a string, so they are left with only one tool left in their financial trick box: Creating and pushing money into the system!

Craig predicts six things what we may expect to see next:

1) Calls for Ben Bernanke’s resignation may also be expected as this debt crisis snowballs into an inflation crisis.
2) Treasury bonds will become junk bonds.
3) More Tea-Party revolts around the nation.
4) Gold will rise to $1,250 this year.
5) Oil will rise back above $100 a barrel, bringing gas prices back to $4-5/gallon.
6) The cost of living will go through the roof within two years.

Craig reminds your listeners that the root meaning of the word debt is ‘death,’ saying, “The debtor becomes a slave to the lender. Let’s stop borrowing and spending our future and instead save real money, gold, silver and commodities—preferably before they go sky high.”


ABOUT CRAIG SMITH…

Craig R. Smith is the CEO of Swiss America Corporation and author of many articles and books including Black Gold Stranglehold and Rediscovering Gold in the 21st Century. As an economic analyst, Craig instantly engages audiences with his common-sense perspective on national and global economic trends. Over the past two decades he has been interviewed on over 1,500 radio and TV programs including: CFRN, FOX News, CNN, CNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, PBS, CBN, TBN, Time, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Newsweek.

While our big picture short trade fared well, our on-air trade today got stopped out.









Just keepin' it real! Enjoy the POD...

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Obama Stumbles, Fed Fumbles, Russia Wants To Rumble

(QQQQ)(SPX)(DIA)(INDU)(DJIA)

Today's on-air trade was a simple "buy the pullback" in an uptrend.
To say more would spoil the elegance...









Enjoy the POD and here's to hoping you were short on the close.

Monday, March 16, 2009

No Live Broadcast Monday March 16th or Tuesday March 17th

It's complicated...

Blessings
D

Saturday, March 14, 2009

CPS Swooped In And Took Them Away

Why?
It's the law...

The mission of CPS is the protection and welfare of children, hence the name Child Protective Services. So they took 3 siblings from a home where they were safe, loved, and not on welfare, split them up and sent them to different homes with "official" foster parents.

Why?
Because the mother who abandoned them petitioned the machine and the marching orders of CPS is Family Reunification no matter what the cost. Even at the expense of a child. Don't believe me? Go read the article in the (leftist?) New Times and you'll understand what true child abuse really is.

Or,
you can watch the video and see if first hand -

Friday, March 13, 2009

Defazio Wants To Stop Daytrading - Stop Defazio Or Lose Your Lifestyle

Watch this video -

Here's impact on futures trade:

The ES is trading at around 720 today and its cash value is 50 times that, or $36000 per contract. So if you do one round turn on a single contract, you have $72000 in transactions. The transaction tax is 0.25% of $72000 which is $180, or a little more than 3.5 pts. Add commissions and you need to profit 4 pts on average on every trade you make. This is not a tax on profit, its a transaction tax that you pay regardless of the outcome of your trade. No one day trades with that kind of profit factor that I know, or have heard of. That means daytrading the ES ends, software vendors go out of business, and exchange revenues drop precipitously. The only private day traders will be from foreign countries.

This is being promoted as a means to pay for TARP. Listen to him closely, he says straight out that he wants to get rid of those unproductive day traders that work with "little tiny margins and churn". And calls us "Wall Street".

-- Gerald Bryan


If you have not already done it, please make your voice heard.

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h111-1068

http://www.rallycongress.com/no2tradertax/1536/




Today's trade was sort of a Casual Friday kinda' trade.
No muss, no fuss, and no drama.


Thursday, March 12, 2009

Simon Says Obama doesn’t like earmarks - except when they are okay. Paula asks Does this make me look porky?

(QQQQ)(SPY)(XLF)(SSO)(SDS)

After the drama of yesterday's on-air trade we decided to just "get 'em and go" today.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

My Producer Says We Need A Stimulating Headline For The Daily Show / Yawn! / Are We Here To Make Money Or Entertain? Both? Uh-Oh....

(QQQQ)(DJIA)(DIA)(SPY)(INDU)

Today's trade was filled with emotion.
#1) We got filled (yipee)
#2) We got sweated (yikes)
#3) We failed to take a decent profit when it presented itself (yuk)
#4)We got sweated again (yikes X 2)
#5) We got out with enough with enough profit to buy lunch =) (yipee X 2)

Just remember, on days like today, before you go home and kick the dog, Take Off Your Shoes!

Amen?

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

S&P Rallies From 666 And Sparks The Largest 1 Day Up Move Of The New Regime

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)(INDU)(SSO)

No conspiracy theory here, just a few odd facts.

This Friday will be Friday the 13th. (again)
As you recall we just had one last month.
That's 2 Friday the 13th's since Obama took office.
And as for the bell-weather S&P selling off to exactly 666,
well that's just darn spooky.

Today did present traders and the public at large with a much needed relief rally. The Dow closed up 379 points! It's great to see Green on the Screen but remember the fundamental flaws that are being woven into our economy will be around for a very long time.

My recommendation - Turn off the TV and just trade what you see.

Today we saw 2 great entries on the show. A long entry at 707.25 and again on
the pullback to 709.









Enjoy the Pod!

Monday, March 09, 2009

Obama's New Strategy - Kill Babies, Negotiate With Terrorists

(QQQQ)(SPY)(XLF)(SSO)(SDS)









Today we learned that Obama and Facebook are pretty much the same thing - Overvalued and full of faulty code. We know who programmed Fbook, but we're still researching who holds rights to the most elegant code that runs our Manchurian Candidate aka the POTUS.

While the world continues to spin, we will continue to trade. Today we took one trade on-air and shorted 688.50, we covered at 685.50 resulting in a 3 point gain. To the naked unwashed masses this may seem like a paltry days pay.

For those who may be new to the markets and/or our daily program, here's the math -

1 point = $50 per contract

1 contract requires $500 margin

example:
a $5k account can trade 10 contracts
10 contracts X $50 = $500 or a 10% gain for a 1 point move

should you trade 10 contracts with a $5k account? NO!

trade 1 until you can afford to trade 2 with your PROFITS
trade 2 until you can afford to trade 3 with your PROFITS
and so on and so on.........

How do you do this?
A) Listen to the show
B) Free Trial @ Trading Faith
C) Free Trial @ Trade Stalker
D) Free Trial @ Page Trader
E) Email my friend Doug Goeckel and beg to get in the next class

Until the morrow'
Be Blessed
and go post something on Fbook so I can get this documentary over with!

Amen?

Sunday, March 08, 2009

Prosperity for God's People / eMini Futures Trading - Friday March 6, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(SPX)(INDU)

Sunday Evening - Markets are up initially in overnight trading. Bearish news has been released over the weekend which we will discuss on tomorrow's show.

On Friday's show we bought 675 for a 2 point gain and 672 for a 3 point gain.

Gold Rally









Spot gold respected support at $900, rallying above short-term resistance at $920 and breaking out of its trend channel to signal reversal of the recent down-trend. The short-term target is $940; calculated as 920 + ( 920 - 900 ). Retracement that respects the new support level at $920 would confirm the up-trend, offering a medium-term target of $1000. Failure of support at $900 is now unlikely, but would warn of a test of $700. In the long term, breakout above $1000 would offer a target of $1200; calculated as 900 + ( 1000 - 700 ) from the large descending broadening wedge over the last 12 months.
(From the Diary of Colin Twiggs)

The Confidence Man

There are a few ways to describe Bernie Madoff,
alleged perpetrator of the largest
Ponzi scheme in history.
One of them is as a particularly outsized and successful confidence man. OTM producer Jamie York looks at the long American tradition of being fascinated, entertained and fleeced by con men again and again.
(Thanks to Monday Morning Clacker)

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Obama Struggles to Locate Goodfella's

(QQQQ)(SPY)(XLF)(SSO)(SDS)

Prosperity for God's People
eMini Futures Trading
Thursday March 5, 2009

Today's Humble On-Air Trade








Treasury starved for appointees
Two top picks of Secretary Timothy Geithner’s have withdrawn
their names from consideration.
Lanny Breuer's rogue's gallery
Obama’s pick to head the DOJ’s criminal division has
represented several high-profile subjects.
Gupta withdraws surgeon general bid
Gupta’s decision is yet another blow to Obama’s effort to
expand health coverage this year.


Is it just me or is there a theme here?

Crooks are the politician of choice in Chicago, it's an age old tradition. Is is possible that there is a light bright enough on Capitol Hill to scare away the cock-a-roaches...?

Naaahhh!
But it's a nice thought, right?

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

No Live Show or Podcast Wednesday March 4, 2009 - See excuse below

Click here to view CT's excuse note.


See DeWayne's Profile | Create Your Badge
DeWayne Reeves's Facebook profile

Fear on Main Street - Blood on Wall Street and Obama Throws a Cocktail Party

(QQQQ)(SPY)(XLF)(SSO)(SDS)

Prosperity for God's People
eMini Futures Trading
Tuesday March 3, 2009

Yes you CAN get out of DEBT!
(click here)


I've never been much of a "Goin' to Hell in a Hand-Cart" kinda guy but did you catch the latest issue of Newsweek?

Sunday, March 01, 2009

No Live Show Monday March 2, 2009

Due to issues relating to "la familia" there will be no Live Show or Podcast today.

See you all Tuesday.