Thursday, July 30, 2009

David Williams - PageTrader

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)




Mike Reed / TradeStalker

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Savant

Pastor Frank

Prosperity for God's People - Thursday July 30, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Complete broadcast.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

David Williams - PageTrader

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Savant

Pastor Frank

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Prosperity for God's People - Wednesday July 29, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Complete broadcast.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Slouching Toward Orwell's 1984

George Orwell’s novel was a warning about the direction of government action in socialist economies. The Soviet Union was liberal-progressives’ “future that works,” the last stop on the Democrat/Socialist express now hurtling us into two of the most costly and enslaving programs ever seriously considered by Congress.

Jeff Lukens turns our attention to Orwell’s insights.


Slouching Toward Orwell’s 1984

By Jeff Lukens

George Orwell’s “Nineteen Eighty-Four” tells of an advanced world where there are no individual freedoms, and the state uses fear to manipulate and control people to conform to a prescribed belief. In the book, the Party maintains absolute power, and power has become an end to itself. His book is as relevant today as ever. In the age of Obama, the freedoms that define American life are slipping away and being replaced with ever more state control.

In Orwell’s book, the Party constantly rewrites history and rewrites the language to restrict the true meaning of words and the ideas behind them. They eliminate words to reduce vocabulary and thereby reduce uncontrolled thoughts. Doublespeak makes people believe what they would otherwise know to be false, and is encapsulated by the phrase: “War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength.” Orwell defined doublethink as, “The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.”

In the book, the Party rewrites historical documents to match an evolving propaganda line, which changes daily. They amend newspaper articles, destroy evidence, and delete the existence of people identified as “unpersons.”

More than any other facet of the novel, political rhetoric today is designed to shape the thoughts of people toward the party line. While we all accept that thievery is wrong in our personal lives, the government makes thievery by taxes a great virtue for “the public good.” Global warming advocates claim to be “saving the planet” when in fact they have no evidence their polices will do anything of the sort. Those who doubt their claims are called “deniers.” And while jihadists are still killing our soldiers, we now call the global war on terror an “Overseas Contingency Operation.” The list is virtually endless.

Similar to Orwell’s 1984, our personal possessions today are fast becoming only what the state allows us to have. Employment is found ever more within government. The Party (you know which one) is gaining control of our health care, our cars, our insurance companies, our schools, and our banks. Let’s just say they are gaining ever more control or our lives.

Democrats draw their support from the ignorance and complacency of their electorate: the Proles, as Orwell would say. People fear that if they oppose this mad dash toward collectivism, they may be stripped of what few gifts the government allows them to have. Big Brother may be watching.

Intentional or not, rational discussions on issues are increasingly harder to achieve. Try having a coherent debate with a committed Leftist and it will often break down to emotional appeals, unsupported accusations, and outright name-calling. And as for our Big Brother, whose cool demeanor precludes such behavior, the tactic is more like, “Are you talking to me?” Question his policies and you quickly become an unperson.

Barack Obama utters soothing tones that seem comforting on the surface, but his policies only prescribe more misery, and in the end only strengthen the state. His apparent contempt for the Constitution, the rule of law, and Founder’s intent can be waved off with the flicker of his hand, and a bit more empathy on the Supreme Court. Individuals who think independently are a threat to him, and the last thing he wants is to be held accountable for what he says. With the aid of the adoring media, so far he hasn’t had to.

Today’s media is almost as one-sided as Orwell’s Ministry of Truth. Their cheering on Obama is as close to groupthink as anyone has ever seen. Most news coverage is all Obama all the time, and news shows are even broadcast from inside the White House. They have lowered journalistic standards to the point where they allow very little discussion of dissenting opinion.

In Orwell’s 1984, telescreens announce economic production figures that are grossly overstated, or simply invented, to show an ever-rising economy when there is actually decline. In our case, no matter how robust the economy has been in recent years, the talking heads have always warned of looming recession. Now that economic hardship has arrived, mostly by the hand of an intrusive government, they vilify the free market and encourage ever more state control.

Unlike the book, our government does not torture people. Instead, they confiscate personal possessions through taxes and wantonly squander it. It is not the physical torture of people they cause, but their financial ruin and dependency.

Consider a government-run health system where individual choices are removed, and the patient—faced with a major illness—is left to the mercy of faceless government officials to decide whether he or she lives or dies. Could we become a nation where the old and infirm become too costly to care for? In the name of progress, rationed care could replace the most advanced health care system in the world.

A state-controlled health system could easily become an avenue by which all food perceived as high fat, high sodium or otherwise unhealthy is prohibited, taxed and strictly controlled to save money for the state. By way of new regulations that we cannot yet imagine, the authority of the state over the individual could easily reach far beyond issues of health with a single-payer health system.

The American way of life has never been about fear of our own government. We have always been a nation where each person is unique and worthy of respect. If we wish to remain a self-sufficient people where the rule of law provides a governing framework for our way of life, we need to take steps to preserve it.

We are nowhere near the level of tyranny found in Orwell’s 1984, but we move closer to it each day. The state seizes ever more power over the individual simply because it can. Orwell warned that no one ever seized power with the intention of relinquishing it. This is the nature of the state, and is why the Founders created a government with divided and enumerated powers. It is also why we all need to oppose the growing threat to our freedoms posed by Barack Obama and his statist allies on the Left.

Jeff Lukens is a columnist who lives in Florida.


Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Savant

David Williams - PageTrader

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)






Market completes $967.00 downside target and reverses, closes lower... Tuesday's session opened lower and completed S&P Messenger's $967.00 natural downside target noted in today's support/resistance panel. The market reversed off that level and (like several recent sessions) spent the remainder of the day in a slow, compressed uptrend, closing the day at $975.90. Today's quiet market made new swing trading entry less available at the critical levels. However, the market remains at a critical juncture on the upside, making the remainder of the week important with several tradable indications possible. I look forward to Wednesday's session. D.W.

Mike Reed / TradeStalker

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)






HOW OUR DAY WENT: The market gave us a number of very
good opportunities. Starting with a big down open the
ES reversed from 1 tick over the 971.50-970.75 support
and rallied 7.50 points to 979.25. That fizzle set up
a nice short. The volatility picked up allowing a couple
more trades covered in the instant message room.

**The intraday updates are copied below the nightly
game-plan Support and Resistance tables.**

Members have been benefiting from these updates
since 1996. Join our group by going here:
http://www.tradestalker.com/order-page.htm
(or call us at 260-750-2447)

If you don't have "Read the Greed" you can get
a bonus package here:
http://www.tradestalker.com/special-ebook-offer.htm

..............................

...................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 25 / 2009

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................


Dateline: 6:25 pm eastern time, 7/25/2009


The market opened lower on Monday, and the ES immediately
popped up to 976.25 and fizzled before another drop. The ES
fell 3.50 points to 972.75 (the 972.50-972.00 initial
support). Able to hold the initial support, the ES ran up to
the 979.50-980.25 resistance zone. That zone was easily
rejected, and after a little double top was put in place
from 979.75 high, it started a 10.75 point trend-down move
to a 969.00 low (969.00-968.75 was the second support zone
listed) before turning back up. The bounce took the ES 6.75
points higher to 975.75, right at the 975.50-976.00 updated
resistance zone, and it made a little double top before
selling off 5 points to 971.75. The market then chopped
sideways for a bit, and then finally broke lower.That drop
reversed from 970.75 and the upside got in gear. The ES
rallied to make a little double top at 978.25, but the
pullback held 976.25 and then popped up to a lower high then
reversed. The dip held at 974.25 and then in the last 30
minutes the market rallied to new highs, with the ES
reaching 980.00 at the close.

The market is now very overbought, and the reversal by the
Vix on Monday gave 2 out of 5 possible sell signals in my
work. However, the market continues to be very resilient,
and the pattern of early weakness and late strength is a
plus for the market. For now, the market is "ok" unless the
initial support areas are not held on the first decent
pullback. If the initial support areas are all broken, then
a short term top could be in place. Unless/until that
occurs, the dips should set up buying opportunities.

On Tuesday we get the Consumer Confidence number 30 minutes
into the trading day. If the ES pops over the 980 level and
reverses back down through it, then it can trigger a
shorting opportunity with a pretty tight stop. If that
doesn't happen, and the ES stays over 980, then it could
goose shorts and cause a move to get momentum and rally to
the 984.00-984.50 area, or higher. If the market is unable
to stay over the initial support zones, then it will dent
the upside momentum. should that occur, and the ES slides to
the 969.00 low from Monday, a quick reversal would be needed
to avoid rolling over.



September 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9

980.00-980.50
984.00-984.50
989.75-990.50

September 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9

975.00-974.50
971.50-970.75
969.00
963.00-962.50

September 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9

1602.00-1603.75
1607.75-1608.50
1616.75-1618.25

September 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9

1588.50-1588.00
1584.00-1583.25
1578.00
1574.75-1573.75

September 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu9

9074-9078
9102-9107
9157-9162

September 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu9

9028-9023
9018-9015
8990
8937-8933

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update

...............................................


Dateline: 10:02 eastern time, es9u= 975 nq9u= 1594

The ES opened just over the 971.50-970.75 support and
turned up and bounced into Consumer confidence release.
A bounce should fail under 978, and if so we get a decent
sized selloff.

good trading,
Mike

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 2

...............................................


Dateline: 10:55 eastern time, es9u= 973.5 nq9u= 1593

The ES went down to 969.50 before bouncing back about
half the way from the highs. It looks like a 2 sided day,
with moves both ways. The better trade would set up on
the bounces that stall for now. The 969.50-969.00 area
needs to hold to avoid a start of a topping process.

good trading,
Mike

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 3

...............................................


Dateline: 12:09 eastern time, es9u= 968.5 nq9u= 1586

The ES fell thru the 969.50-969.00 area and it is now
resistance. It will take a break/hold over that area to
get into neutral territory. The 974.25 level would be
key resistance.

good trading,
Mike

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 4

...............................................


Dateline: 12:55 eastern time, es9u= 968.5 nq9u= 1587

The ES reached 970.50 and backed off. A wedge is forming
and a bounce needs to get over 970.50, and not quickly
reverse, to avoid another push lower.

good trading,
Mike

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 5

...............................................


Dateline: 1:41 eastern time, es9u= 971 nq9u= 1596

The wedge was broken and the ES spilled to 967.50 and
turned back up. The 970 level needs to hold to Avoid
a reversal.

good trading,
Mike

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 6

...............................................


Dateline: 2:34 eastern time, es9u= 977.5 nq9u= 1606.5

The ES held at 970.75 and is in a good uptrend unless the
975.00-974.25 area isn't held.

good trading,
Mike

Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.

www.TradeStalker.com
<http://www.TradeStalker.com>
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899

Pastor Frank

Greg - TradingFaith

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Prosperity for God's People - Tuesday July 28, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Our Racist-in-Chief

Henry Lewis Gates, Barack Obama, Al Sharpton, and Jesse Jackson: peas from the same pod.


Liberal-progressive voters and the mainstream liberal-progressive media, hanging worshipfully on every word of Barack Obama (RPOTUS), reflexively see Professor Henry Lewis Gates’s racist behavior toward a white policeman doing his job by the book as proof that a complete socialization of the nation, with broadened hate crime penalties, is required.

Will the rest of the nation buy it?

As Professor Thomas Sowell writes, what else could we expect from a man whose only prior executive experience was as a community agitator whose job was to stir up racial resentments. During the presidential campaign, RPOTUS told Joe the Plumber what to expect: he intended to take from responsible citizens and give to his political supporters.

That agenda, we should not be surprised, is being promoted by community organizing (aka racial agitation), now on a national scale.

Back to summary...

Prosperity for God's People - Monday July 27, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Savant

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

David Williams - PageTrader

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Greg - TradingFaith

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Prosperity for God's People - Friday July 24, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Abundance is not something we acquire. It is something we tune into.


Thursday, July 23, 2009

Mike Reed / TradeStalker.com

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)


David Williams - PageTrader

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Savant

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Greg - TradingFaith

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)









During our chat today, you will hear (heard) me ask Greg about a trader I stumbled across -

The Solitary Trader














He seems to have vanished. I'm intrigued... please someone, go find him.

Prosperity for God's People - Thursday July 23, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Complete broadcast.


"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as
a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."

"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the
get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."
Jesse Livermore

Don't take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don't be an impatient trader.



A Worldwide Bubble in Everything
by Bill Bonner
Vancouver, Canada


The depression deepens.

"These are not layoffs...they're permanent job losses," said Barry Ritholtz yesterday morning in his presentation at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium in Vancouver. "These people are not going back to work anytime soon."

That is the difference between a recession and a depression. In a recession people get laid off...and then they are called back to work when things go back to normal. But in a depression, they are let go permanently. They exhaust their unemployment benefits and become desperate. They must find new employment in new industries. Because things cannot go back to normal; normal is played out.

"In the period, 2001 -2007," our old friend Mark Faber reminded us in his speech on Tuesday, "the Fed managed to do something that had never before been done - create a worldwide bubble in just about everything. Stocks, bonds, art, oil, housing - you name it; it went up. The only thing that didn't go up was the dollar."

How did the Fed pull off such a remarkable achievement?

Stimulus!
(read more)

Dow Averages Signal Bull Market

By Colin Twiggs
July 23, 2009 10:00 p.m. ET (12:00 p.m. AET)

Five major indexes have all commenced a primary up-trend, signaling the start of a bull market. A word of caution: the recovery is exceedingly fragile. I will only feel comfortable with the bull signal when the Fed and other central banks start raising interest rates. And that is unlikely to occur for some time — without risking a second contraction. Keep your guard up — and your stops tight.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow broke through 9000, exceeding its January high to confirm a primary advance with a target of 10000*. The spike in Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) indicates abnormal buying pressure.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 9000 + ( 9000 - 8000 ) = 10000

Transport

The Dow Transport Average broke through resistance at 3400 after a lengthy consolidation between 3000 and 3400 (referred to as a line in Dow Theory). Expect a primary advance with a target of 3800*.

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 - 3000 ) = 3800

Dow Jones Transportation Average

Bellwether transport stock Fedex displays a similar signal, but UPS lags behind after disappointing earnings. Declining UPS package volumes and flat Fedex shipments raise the risk of a "false spring" (Bloomberg).

S&P 500

The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 950 to signal a primary advance. Penetration of 1000 would offer a target of 1300*.

Standard & Poors 500

* Target calculation: 1000 + ( 1000 - 700 ) = 1300

UK: FTSE 100

An FTSE 100 broke through 4500 to signal a primary advance with a target of 5000*.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 4500 + ( 4500 - 4000 ) = 5000

Germany: DAX

The DAX broke out above 5150, signaling a primary advance with a target of 5800*.

DAX

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 - 4500 ) = 5800



Russia, Ahmadinejad and Iran Reconsidered


July 20, 2009

At Friday prayers July 17 at Tehran University, the influential cleric and former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani gave his first sermon since Iran's disputed presidential election and the subsequent demonstrations. The crowd listening to Rafsanjani inside the mosque was filled with Ahmadinejad supporters who chanted, among other things, "Death to America" and "Death to China." Outside the university common grounds, anti-Ahmadinejad elements — many of whom were blocked by Basij militiamen and police from entering the mosque — persistently chanted "Death to Russia."

Death to America is an old staple in Iran. Death to China had to do with the demonstrations in Xinjiang and the death of Uighurs at the hands of the Chinese. Death to Russia, however, stood out. Clearly, its use was planned before the protesters took to the streets. The meaning of this must be uncovered. To begin to do that, we must consider the political configuration in Iran at the moment.
The Iranian Political Configuration

There are two factions claiming to speak for the people. Rafsanjani represents the first faction. During his sermon, he spoke for the tradition of the founder of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who took power during the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Rafjsanjani argued that Khomeini wanted an Islamic republic faithful to the will of the people, albeit within the confines of Islamic law. Rafsanjani argued that he was the true heir to the Islamic revolution. He added that Khomeini's successor — the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — had violated the principles of the revolution when he accepted that Rafsanjani's archenemy, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, had won Iran's recent presidential election. (There is enormous irony in foreigners describing Rafsanjani as a moderate reformer who supports greater liberalization. Though he has long cultivated this image in the West, in 30 years of public political life it is hard to see a time when he has supported Western-style liberal democracy.)

The other faction is led by Ahmadinejad, who takes the position that Rafsanjani in particular — along with the generation of leaders who ascended to power during the first phase of the Islamic republic — has betrayed the Iranian people. Rather than serving the people, Ahmadinejad claims they have used their positions to become so wealthy that they dominate the Iranian economy and have made the reforms needed to revitalize the Iranian economy impossible. According to Ahmadinejad's charges, these elements now blame Ahmadinejad for Iran's economic failings when the root of these failings is their own corruption. Ahmadinejad claims that the recent presidential election represents a national rejection of the status quo. He adds that claims of fraud represent attempts by Rafsanjani — who he portrays as defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi's sponsor — and his ilk to protect their positions from Ahmadinejad.

Iran is therefore experiencing a generational dispute, with each side claiming to speak both for the people and for the Khomeini tradition. There is the older generation — symbolized by Rafsanjani — that has prospered during the last 30 years. Having worked with Khomeini, this generation sees itself as his true heir. Then, there is the younger generation. Known as "students" during the revolution, this group did the demonstrating and bore the brunt of the shah's security force counterattacks. It argues that Khomeini would be appalled at what Rafsanjani and his generation have done to Iran.

This debate is, of course, more complex than this. Khamenei, a key associate of Khomeini, appears to support Ahmadinejad's position. And Ahmadinejad hardly speaks for all of the poor as he would like to claim. The lines of political disputes are never drawn as neatly as we would like. Ultimately, Rafsanjani's opposition to the recent election did not have as much to do with concerns (valid or not) over voter fraud. It had everything to do with the fact that the outcome threatened his personal position. Which brings us back to the question of why Rafsanjani's followers were chanting Death to Russia.
Examining the Anomalous Chant

For months prior to the election, Ahmadinejad's allies warned that the United States was planning a "color" revolution. Color revolutions, like the one in Ukraine, occurred widely in the former Soviet Union after its collapse, and these revolutions followed certain steps. An opposition political party was organized to mount an electoral challenge to the establishment. Then, an election occurred that was either fraudulent or claimed by the opposition as having been fraudulent. Next, widespread peaceful protests against the regime (all using a national color as the symbol of the revolution) took place, followed by the collapse of the government through a variety of paths. Ultimately, the opposition — which was invariably pro-Western and particularly pro-American — took power.

Moscow openly claimed that Western intelligence agencies, particularly the CIA, organized and funded the 2004-2005 Orange Revolution in Ukraine. These agencies allegedly used nongovernmental organizations (human rights groups, pro-democracy groups, etc.) to delegitimize the existing regime, repudiate the outcome of the election regardless of its validity and impose what the Russians regarded as a pro-American puppet regime. The Russians saw Ukraine's Orange Revolution as the break point in their relationship with the West, with the creation of a pro-American, pro-NATO regime in Ukraine representing a direct attack on Russian national security. The Americans argued that to the contrary, they had done nothing but facilitate a democratic movement that opposed the existing regime for its own reasons, demanding that rigged elections be repudiated.

In warning that the United States was planning a color revolution in Iran, Ahmadinejad took the Russian position. Namely, he was arguing that behind the cover of national self-determination, human rights and commitment to democratic institutions, the United States was funding an Iranian opposition movement on the order of those active in the former Soviet Union. Regardless of whether the opposition actually had more votes, this opposition movement would immediately regard an Ahmadinejad win as the result of fraud. Large demonstrations would ensue, and if they were left unopposed the Islamic republic would come under threat.

In doing this, Ahmadinejad's faction positioned itself against the actuality that such a rising would occur. If it did, Ahmadinejad could claim that the demonstrators were — wittingly or not — operating on behalf of the United States, thus delegitimizing the demonstrators. In so doing, he could discredit supporters of the demonstrators as not tough enough on the United States, a useful charge against Rafsanjani, whom the West long has held up as an Iranian moderate.

Interestingly, while demonstrations were at their height, Ahmadinejad chose to attend — albeit a day late — a multinational Shanghai Cooperation Organization conference in Moscow on the Tuesday after the election. It was very odd that he would leave Iran during the greatest postelection unrest; we assumed he had decided to demonstrate to Iranians that he didn't take the demonstrations seriously.

The charge that seems to be emerging on the Rafsanjani side is that Ahmadinejad's fears of a color revolution were not simply political, but were encouraged by the Russians. It was the Russians who had been talking to Ahmadinejad and his lieutenants on a host of issues, who warned him about the possibility of a color revolution. More important, the Russians helped prepare Ahmadinejad for the unrest that would come — and given the Russian experience, how to manage it. Though we speculate here, if this theory is correct, it could explain some of the efficiency with which Ahmadinejad shut down cell phone and other communications during the postelection unrest, as he may have had Russian advisers.

Rafsanjani's followers were not shouting Death to Russia without a reason, at least in their own minds. They are certainly charging that Ahmadinejad took advice from the Russians, and went to Russia in the midst of political unrest for consultations. Rafsanjani's charge may or may not be true. Either way, there is no question that Ahmadinejad did claim that the United States was planning a color revolution in Iran. If he believed that charge, it would have been irrational not to reach out to the Russians. But whether or not the CIA was involved, the Russians might well have provided Ahmadinejad with intelligence of such a plot and helped shape his response, and thereby may have created a closer relationship with him.

How Iran's internal struggle will work itself out remains unclear. But one dimension is shaping up: Ahmadinejad is trying to position Rafsanjani as leading a pro-American faction intent on a color revolution, while Rafsanjani is trying to position Ahmadinejad as part of a pro-Russian faction. In this argument, the claim that Ahmadinejad had some degree of advice or collaboration with the Russians is credible, just as the claim that Rafsanjani maintained some channels with the Americans is credible. And this makes an internal dispute geopolitically significant.
The Iranian Struggle in a Geopolitical Context

At the moment, Ahmadinejad appears to have the upper hand. Khamenei has certified his re-election. The crowds have dissipated; nothing even close to the numbers of the first few days has since materialized. For Ahmadinejad to lose, Rafsanjani would have to mobilize much of the clergy — many of whom are seemingly content to let Rafsanjani be the brunt of Ahmadinejad's attacks — in return for leaving their own interests and fortunes intact. There are things that could bring Ahmadinejad down and put Rafsanjani in control, but all of them would require Khamenei to endorse social and political instability, which he will not do.

If the Russians have in fact intervened in Iran to the extent of providing intelligence to Ahmadinejad and advice to him during his visit on how to handle the postelection unrest (as the chants suggest), then Russian influence in Iran is not surging — it has surged. In some measure, Ahmadinejad would owe his position to Russian warnings and advice. There is little gratitude in the world of international affairs, but Ahmadinejad has enemies, and the Russians would have proved their utility in helping contain those enemies.

From the Russian point of view, Ahmadinejad would be a superb asset — even if not truly under their control. His very existence focuses American attention on Iran, not on Russia. It follows, then, that Russia would have made a strategic decision to involve itself in the postelection unrest, and that for the purposes of its own negotiations with Washington, Moscow will follow through to protect the Iranian state to the extent possible. The Russians have already denied U.S. requests for assistance on Iran. But if Moscow has intervened in Iran to help safeguard Ahmadinejad's position, then the potential increases for Russia to provide Iran with the S-300 strategic air defense systems that it has been dangling in front of Tehran for more than a decade.

If the United States perceives an entente between Moscow and Tehran emerging, then the entire dynamic of the region shifts and the United States must change its game. The threat to Washington's interests becomes more intense as the potential of a Russian S-300 sale to Iran increases, and the need to disrupt the Russian-Iranian entente would become all the more important. U.S. influence in Iran already has declined substantially, and Ahmadinejad is more distrustful and hostile than ever of the United States after having to deal with the postelection unrest. If a Russian-Iranian entente emerges out of all this — which at the moment is merely a possibility, not an imminent reality — then the United States would have some serious strategic problems on its hands.
Revisiting Assumptions on Iran

For the past few years, STRATFOR has assumed that a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran was unlikely. Iran was not as advanced in its nuclear program as some claimed, and the complexities of any attack were greater than assumed. The threat of an attack was thus a U.S. bargaining chip, much as Iran's nuclear program itself was an Iranian bargaining chip for use in achieving Tehran's objectives in Iraq and the wider region. To this point, our net assessment has been accurate.

At this point, however, we need to stop and reconsider. If Iran and Russia begin serious cooperation, Washington's existing dilemma with Iran's nuclear ambitions and its ongoing standoff with the Russians would fuse to become a single, integrated problem. This is something the United States would find difficult to manage. Washington's primary goal would become preventing this from happening.

Ahmadinejad has long argued that the United States was never about to attack Iran, and that charges by Rafsanjani and others that he has pursued a reckless foreign policy were groundless. But with the Death to Russia chants and signaling of increased Russian support for Iran, the United States may begin to reconsider its approach to the region.

Iran's clerical elite does not want to go to war. They therefore can only view with alarm the recent ostentatious transiting of the Suez Canal into the Red Sea by Israeli submarines and corvettes. This transiting did not happen without U.S. approval. Moreover, in spite of U.S. opposition to expanded Israeli settlements and Israeli refusals to comply with this opposition, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will be visiting Israel in two weeks. The Israelis have said that there must be a deadline on negotiations with Iran over the nuclear program when the next G-8 meeting takes place in September; a deadline that the G-8 has already approved. The consequences if Iran ignores the deadline were left open-ended.

All of this can fit into our old model of psychological warfare, as representing a bid to manipulate Iranian politics by making Ahmadinejad's leadership look too risky. It could also be the United States signaling to the Russians that stakes in the region are rising. It is not clear that the United States has reconsidered its strategy on Iran in the wake of the postelection demonstrations. But if Rafsanjani's claim of Russian support for Ahmadinejad is true, a massive re-evaluation of U.S. policy could ensue, assuming one hasn't already started — prompting a reconsideration of the military option.

All of this assumes that there is substance behind a mob chanting "Death to Russia." There appears to be, but of course, Ahmadinejad's enemies would want to magnify that substance to its limits and beyond. This is why we are not ready to simply abandon our previous net assessment of Iran, even though it is definitely time to rethink it.

John F. Mauldin
johnmauldin@investorsinsight.com

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Masters of Excellence - New Class Forming

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Contact Doug / Class begins in August

http://cfrnpod.blogspot.com/2008/10/masters-of-excellence-w-doug-goeckel.html

http://cfrnpod.blogspot.com/2008/09/trade-journaling-w-doug-goeckel-masters.html

http://cfrnpod.blogspot.com/2008/09/interview-with-doug-goeckel-masters-of.html

doug@excglobal.com

Savant

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index is testing primary support at 78.50; breakout would signal a primary decline with a target of 73*. Reversal above 0.81 is unlikely, but would test resistance from the March low at 83.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 78 - ( 83 - 78) = 73

Euro

The euro broke out above the recent triangle against the greenback, signaling a primary advance with a target of $1.50*. Follow-through above $1.43 would confirm the signal. Reversal below $1.38 is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend.

Euro US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.43 + ( 1.43 - 1.37 ) = 1.49

Japanese Yen

The dollar respected the new resistance level at ¥94, but this will only be confirmed if short-term support at ¥92 is broken. Failure to test the upper trend channel would warn that the down-trend is accelerating — and likely to test the December low of ¥87* in the medium-term.

US Dollar Yen

* Target calculation: 94 - ( 101 - 94) = 87

Australian Dollar

The Aussie dollar continues its narrow consolidation between $0.78 and $0.82 against the greenback. The positive interest rate differential with major reserve currencies is driving demand. RBA selling of Australian dollars — accumulated when supporting the currency in late 2008/early 2009 — however, strengthens resistance. Almost A$2 billion was sold in June alone (WSJ). The CRB Commodities Index is also likely to hinder another advance until its secondary correction has clearly ended. Breakout above $0.82 would signal a primary advance with a target of $0.90*. Reversal below $0.77 is unlikely, but would test support at $0.70.

Australian Dollar US Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.80 + ( 0.80 - 0.70 ) = 0.90

David Williams - PageTrader

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Greg - TradingFaith

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)



TradingFaith

Prosperity for God's People - Wednesday July 22, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)

Complete broadcast.

"The big money is made by the sittin' and the waitin'--not the thinking. Wait until all the factors are in your favor before making the trade." Jesse Livermore

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

I Promise Myself

To be so strong that nothing can disturb my peace of mind.

To talk health, happiness, and prosperity to every person I meet.

To make all my friends feel that there is something worthwhile in them.

To look at the sunny side of everything and make my optimism come true.

To think only of the best, to work only for the best and to expect only the best.

To be just as enthusiastic about the success of others as I am about my own.

To forget the mistakes of the past and press on to the greater achievements of the future.

To wear a cheerful expression at all times and give a smile to every living creature I meet.

To give so much time to improving myself that I have no time to criticize others.

To be too large for worry, too noble for anger, too strong for fear, and too happy to permit the presence of trouble.

To think well of myself and to proclaim this fact to the world, not in loud words, but in great deeds.

To live in the faith that the whole world is on my side, so long as I am true to the best that is in me.

David Williams - PageTrader.com

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Mike Reed / TradeStalker.com

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Savant

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Prosperity for God's People - Tuesday July 21, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)

Complete broadcast.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

No Live Broadcast Monday - July 20, 2009

My brother Jeff will receive his second and final opinion tomorrow. The chemo and radiation treatments are now complete. Your continued prayers are greatly appreciated.

I will return on Tuesday.

Blessings...

Saturday, July 18, 2009

David Williams - PageTrader.com

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(SPX)(INDU)

Today we begin testing a much requested service - slicing and dicing the CFRN Pod.

In other words, if you have a favorite guest, you will be able to listen to that specific segment of the show on demand. How cool is that?

If you download via iTunes, you will grab every segment by default, but be able to control only those segments you actually wish to listen to. For those who enjoy the entire broadcast as they commute in via the tube,subway,train,expressway, etc.... it's all there. (still)

ps/ smart phones let you listen live (get one!)

The software I'm using to slice and dice is somewhat sophisticated and there is a substantial learning curve. This episode with David is simply a test and over time it should get better. It also forces me to listen to the broadcast which is something I've never done before.

For those of you who were around from the beginning, you will remember that CFRN ran bell to bell. Then I trimmed it back after a few years. Then I trimmed it back even further. I am now committing to keep CFRN on the air until August 31st in its current incarnation.

Beyond that, if we remain on the air, we will be forced to pursue a business model not unlike those of our daily guests.

Blessings
CT

Prosperity for God's People - Friday July 17, 2009

(SPY)(SPX)(DIA)(QQQQ)(GLD)

Prosperity for God's People - Thursday July 16, 2009

(SPY)(SPX)(DIA)(QQQQ)(GLD)

Prosperity for God's People - Wednesday July 15, 2009

(SPY)(SPX)(DIA)(QQQQ)(GLD)

Prosperity for God's People - Tuesday July 14, 2009

(SPY)(SPX)(DIA)(QQQQ)(GLD)

Prosperity for God's People - Monday July 13, 2009

Prosperity for God's People - Friday July 10, 2009

Thursday, July 09, 2009

Getting Unstuck



Did you ever have one of those days when some Barry Manilow jingle wormed its way into your brain and you couldn’t get it out? Well, this morning, it was the one about being stuck on Band-Aids.

It goes something like this:

I am stuck on Band-Aid brand and Band-Aid’s stuck on me.

Help me please. Let me fill my mind with Bach or Lady GaGa---anything but this stuff and the sights and sounds of the kids that sing it.

So that brings me to being stuck. How do we get stuck and how do we get unstuck? As usual, the biggest secrets are those in plain view. The best way to hide a secret is not to hide it. So why do we get stuck in the markets? The answer is simple, but not easy: We get stuck on something because we are attached to the outcome of it. It can be anything---position, theory, analysis, word-up from some guru or a bit of compelling prose. Something happens, the brain clicks in and we buy the idea. We are then stuck on it and it is stuck on us. Now, we begin to look for confirmation that it is true. So we read and listen to everything that agrees with it, try to find confirmation, ignore anything that might disagree with us and keep on sticking. It’s called holding and hoping, but it really is just being stuck.

The quickest way to get unstuck is to abandon all attachment to outcome. In other words, you have a theory and you put it to work in the markets. It doesn’t work because the markets tell you it is wrong. Stop being attached to it. Get out. It was wrong. It was an illusion and never existed except on a paper or a graph or chart somewhere.

There is nothing wrong with making a mistake. Everyone makes mistakes and if you make mistakes on 40% of your trades you can still win big. Why? Because you are not attached to the outcome of any single trade. You get in, the markets prove you wrong, and you get out. It’s just like that. This is not rocket science.

However, if you for some reason keep a silly jingle in your head and keep singing the same old lines day after day despite watching your position go into the gutter, then you are attached to outcome. You are stuck on outcome and outcome is stuck on you. Try ripping that off without a big ouch. It’s not easy.

But it can be done and it is done every day, sometimes every hour by traders that know one thing:

The greatest source of suffering is attachment to outcome.

What are you doing today to get unstuck?

And I am thrilled now because writing this made the silly little jingle go away. Get thee to another place of stickage, please. I am so over you.

Thanks and Good Trading!

Janice Dorn,M.D., Ph.D.

Dr. Janice Dorn is believed to be the only Ph.D. (Brain Anatomist) , M.D. (Board-Certified Psychiatrist and Addiction Psychiatrist) and graduate of Coach University in the world who actively trades, writes commentary on the financial markets and manages a subscription-based website. Dr. Dorn has been trading the gold futures markets full time since 1993. She has written over 1000 articles on trader and investor psychology, and mentored over 600 traders and investors. She writes on all aspects of trading psychology and provides a real-time trading service on her website: www.thetradingdoctor.com.

Visit TraderPlanet

Prosperity for God's People - Thursday July 9, 2009

(SPX)(SPY)(DIA)(QQQQ)

Prosperity for God's People - Wednesday July 8, 2009

(SPX)(SPY)(DIA)(QQQQ)

Prosperity for God's People - Tuesday July 7, 2009

(SPX)(SPY)(DIA)(QQQQ)

Prosperity for God's People - Monday July 6, 2009

(SPX)(SPY)(DIA)(QQQQ)

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Obamanomics

Success Is What You Make It

"Some dream and never do.
Others do and never dream.
But then there are those very few who dream,
and do what they dream."


THE PREREQUISITES OF SUCCESS

The nature of this business requires a set of personal attributes without which I doubt anyone can build a consistently successful career as a trader, speculator. or investor.

First is a soundly based self-confidence, a realization that your mind can learn the truth and apply it with positive results in every realm of life.

Second is self-motivation and commitment. the ability and willingness to put the time and energy into learning what to trade and how to trade it.

Third is intellectual independence, the ability to stand on your own judgment based on the facts as you see them in the face of countervailing opinion.

Fourth is a fundamental personal honesty, a total commitment to identifying and dealing with the truth about yourself, the markets, and your decisions.

And finally is a sincere love of what you do, the recognition that the greatest reward comes from the process of the work itself, not the money or fame that may come with it.

These attributes are fundamentally important in every area of life. but the rapid pace and volatility of the financial world make them even more critical. Without self-confidence, you will live in constant fear of making a wrong decision. and sooner or later the fear will paralyze your ability to think and make decisions. Without self-motivation and commitment, the self-motivated and committed competition will eat you alive. Without intellectual independence. you will be swept away by the changing tides of opinion into the whirlpool of financial ruin. Without fundamental personal honesty, your wishes will become claims on reality, and you will find yourself making choices based not on the facts, but on your wishes and hopes. And without love of what you do, your work will become stale and uninteresting; you will lose your motivation and drive to continue.

All of these attributes are attainable, but only through a complete commitment to understanding yourself and your relationship to reality, which means understanding what you want out of life, why you want it, and how to get it. Selfunderstanding is the compass that will guide you on the road of successful living and the beacon that will provide direction during the inevitable times when your course is darkened and confused by frustration and pain. But it will guide and direct you only if you are striving to move forward.

In the introduction to this section the old advisor says, "Some dream and never do. Others do and never dream. But then there are those very few who dream, and do what they dream." Look at people who are happy and successful. They love what they do first and foremost. Watching them, you get the impression that they would work without pay, that making money is just the gravy. For them. each day is a new challenge approached with vigor and enthusiasm. Their actions at home, at work, and in recreation are integrated into their life by a hierarchy of goals set for the hour, the day, and for a lifetime. They take action based on their passion for living and accept failure, pain, and setbacks as part of the process of moving forward, not as insurmountable obstacles. They transform their dreams into reality.

On the other hand, look at people with emptiness in their eyes, devoid of energy, plodding through each day with an embittered reluctance. They live their lives unfulfilled, either dreaming without doing until in the end even their dreams die, or doing without dreaming in mechanical, unrewarding repetition. These people have never grasped, realized in the strictest sense of the term, that their values and goals are them; that in spending energy in pursuits unrelated to a well-defined and -understood self-interest, they are their own persecutor and victim, trapped in a web of their own making as prey to insecurities and fears born of self-doubt.

We have a choice: We can decide to take control over our lives and succeed, or we can give in to fear and pain and let other people and events control us. The right choice is obvious, and making it begins with one simple commitment: CARPE DIEM!! Latin for "Seize the Day!!" This means commit yourself to the fact that each moment in life is precious, is yours, and is to be experienced with as much awareness and passion as you are capable of. It means recognize that, at any moment and in any situation, you can begin the process of change required to be and feel successful. It means grasp on to life and take hold with a devoted grip that clings to unlimited possibility. Seize the day. Dream, but dream with the conviction that you can harness the power within you and turn your dreams into reality.

Trader Vic