Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Mike Reed / TradeStalker

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)






HOW OUR DAY WENT: The market gave us a number of very
good opportunities. Starting with a big down open the
ES reversed from 1 tick over the 971.50-970.75 support
and rallied 7.50 points to 979.25. That fizzle set up
a nice short. The volatility picked up allowing a couple
more trades covered in the instant message room.

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 25 / 2009

(Published Since 1996)

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Dateline: 6:25 pm eastern time, 7/25/2009


The market opened lower on Monday, and the ES immediately
popped up to 976.25 and fizzled before another drop. The ES
fell 3.50 points to 972.75 (the 972.50-972.00 initial
support). Able to hold the initial support, the ES ran up to
the 979.50-980.25 resistance zone. That zone was easily
rejected, and after a little double top was put in place
from 979.75 high, it started a 10.75 point trend-down move
to a 969.00 low (969.00-968.75 was the second support zone
listed) before turning back up. The bounce took the ES 6.75
points higher to 975.75, right at the 975.50-976.00 updated
resistance zone, and it made a little double top before
selling off 5 points to 971.75. The market then chopped
sideways for a bit, and then finally broke lower.That drop
reversed from 970.75 and the upside got in gear. The ES
rallied to make a little double top at 978.25, but the
pullback held 976.25 and then popped up to a lower high then
reversed. The dip held at 974.25 and then in the last 30
minutes the market rallied to new highs, with the ES
reaching 980.00 at the close.

The market is now very overbought, and the reversal by the
Vix on Monday gave 2 out of 5 possible sell signals in my
work. However, the market continues to be very resilient,
and the pattern of early weakness and late strength is a
plus for the market. For now, the market is "ok" unless the
initial support areas are not held on the first decent
pullback. If the initial support areas are all broken, then
a short term top could be in place. Unless/until that
occurs, the dips should set up buying opportunities.

On Tuesday we get the Consumer Confidence number 30 minutes
into the trading day. If the ES pops over the 980 level and
reverses back down through it, then it can trigger a
shorting opportunity with a pretty tight stop. If that
doesn't happen, and the ES stays over 980, then it could
goose shorts and cause a move to get momentum and rally to
the 984.00-984.50 area, or higher. If the market is unable
to stay over the initial support zones, then it will dent
the upside momentum. should that occur, and the ES slides to
the 969.00 low from Monday, a quick reversal would be needed
to avoid rolling over.



September 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9

980.00-980.50
984.00-984.50
989.75-990.50

September 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9

975.00-974.50
971.50-970.75
969.00
963.00-962.50

September 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9

1602.00-1603.75
1607.75-1608.50
1616.75-1618.25

September 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9

1588.50-1588.00
1584.00-1583.25
1578.00
1574.75-1573.75

September 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu9

9074-9078
9102-9107
9157-9162

September 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu9

9028-9023
9018-9015
8990
8937-8933

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update

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Dateline: 10:02 eastern time, es9u= 975 nq9u= 1594

The ES opened just over the 971.50-970.75 support and
turned up and bounced into Consumer confidence release.
A bounce should fail under 978, and if so we get a decent
sized selloff.

good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 2

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Dateline: 10:55 eastern time, es9u= 973.5 nq9u= 1593

The ES went down to 969.50 before bouncing back about
half the way from the highs. It looks like a 2 sided day,
with moves both ways. The better trade would set up on
the bounces that stall for now. The 969.50-969.00 area
needs to hold to avoid a start of a topping process.

good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 3

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Dateline: 12:09 eastern time, es9u= 968.5 nq9u= 1586

The ES fell thru the 969.50-969.00 area and it is now
resistance. It will take a break/hold over that area to
get into neutral territory. The 974.25 level would be
key resistance.

good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 4

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Dateline: 12:55 eastern time, es9u= 968.5 nq9u= 1587

The ES reached 970.50 and backed off. A wedge is forming
and a bounce needs to get over 970.50, and not quickly
reverse, to avoid another push lower.

good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 5

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Dateline: 1:41 eastern time, es9u= 971 nq9u= 1596

The wedge was broken and the ES spilled to 967.50 and
turned back up. The 970 level needs to hold to Avoid
a reversal.

good trading,
Mike

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

7 / 28 / 2009

Intraday Update # 6

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Dateline: 2:34 eastern time, es9u= 977.5 nq9u= 1606.5

The ES held at 970.75 and is in a good uptrend unless the
975.00-974.25 area isn't held.

good trading,
Mike

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