Thursday, September 30, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / End Of Quarter

Last night from our post way out in Limbville, we surmised that perhaps today's sheer magnitude of economic data and Fed-speak, would somehow rouse the slumbering giant out of its range bound stupor of the past week or more. We officially stated "Watch for a break on the upside of our 1151/1152 Weekly Trading Zone" followed by, (in perfect financial journalistic prose I might add...) " or a breakdown of our 1136/1137 Zone". We know we're good, buy how many times can an analyst be correct in the course of one day? In this case, every time, and that's a problem. Problem? Look where we ended the session, right back in Snoozeville. So far tonight on Globex, the trend line on our 30 minute chart is still in play.Tomorrow morning we get the ISM numbers at 10:00am Eastern. 

This economic report is considered to be a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy. The report is put together by surveying about 400 purchasing managers and asking them to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Depending on which 400 they ask, determines the bias of the report we get. Either way this is considered a High Impact report and the numbers are released 30 minutes after the opening bell, not pre-market. Trade with caution until the numbers are released and the market has time to digest them.

Today marked the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2010. Any "window dressing" or "hold 'em up" theories must be laid to rest for another 90 days. Now, we get the "fresh money coming in at the first of the month theory". If you have not read Garrett Jones work or listened to the webinar we did with him, I encourage you to do so. Even though Garrett has a doomsday outlook of Biblical proportions for the market overall, he's still a buyer. In fact, he and his partner via their money management firm, only buy for their clients the first 3 days of the month. I'm not saying they never take profits, they simply don't sell short. At least they haven't over the past 20 years. And they do all their buying the first 3 days. I said that out loud right? And after all these years... they're still in business.

Now as you know, we're a bit bearish all things considered. Our friend David Williams is looking for a 72 point drop in the S&P, and tomorrow's the first day of October. So who wins? If we love God, love people, and simply trade what's in front of us... we all do.

No Podcast Tonight / Technical Glitch

Weekly Trading Zones / Daily Review 
S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES
Dow Emini Futures / YM
Euro FX / 6E


Pray Hard & Trade Safe!
CT
 

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / The Hidden Crash

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(.SPX)(GLD)

Today the trading range got a little bit tighter. The December contract for the S&P 500 Emini futures once again failed to close above 1144 or below 1136. The 1144 is last Friday's settlement price. A close above 1144 opens the door for the market to trade higher to the 1151/1152 Weekly Trading Zone. The market did trade above 1144 briefly on the Globex session Sunday night. Since then we have seen no less than 4 failed break out attempts. On the downside, price was able to briefly breach the 1136 early Tuesday until the Consumer Confidence numbers were released. Consumers it turns out, were (surprise, surprise) less confident than expected. What? Really? So what happened next? The market rallied Up18 points on the news. Yep! Rallied.

We are all now official citizens of Bizarro World. Where up is down and down is up... If you've never seen the Bizarro episode of Seinfeld - Click Here

Tomorrow we get Unemployment Claims, Final GDP, and two (2) speeches from Bernanke. I'm going to go way out on a limb here and suggest one of these high impact events will potentially wake this slumbering market.

Tune in tomorrow from 11AM-4PM Eastern for live charts, lively discussion and live trades. Non-members Register Here

Dollars, euros, and yen are all just currencies you can price any asset in. Everything is cheap or expensive relative to the currency you hold.Thus if gold is truly a world currency, then the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks is dirt cheap when priced in it. For every ounce of gold, you can now buy more than five times the amount of stocks you could have ten years ago, as shown below. The tricky question is where this stocks-to-gold ratio will go over the next ten years:

chart of the day, s&p 500 in gold, 1971-2010, sept 2010


 
Here is the video we shared during today's broadcast. This years mission trip to our orphanages in Uganda and Kenya. Tip o' the hat to my niece Margaret for a great editing job.



Weekly Trading Zones / Daily Review  






Pray Hard & Trade Safe!
CT

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Traders Audio Returns To CFRN

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(.SPX)(GLD)

We would like to welcome back to CFRN a member of our original crew, Mr. Ben Lichtenstein founder of TradersAudio.com



Ben's breathless squawk in the S&P 500 pit in Chicago during the Flash Crash earlier this year has become an internet sensation.Check it out!

Weekly Trading Zones / Daily Review 

    
S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES      
Dow Emini Futures / YM
Euro FX / 6E

Tune in tomorrow from 11AM-4PM Eastern for live charts, lively discussion and live trades. Non-members Register Here


Pray Hard & Trade Safe!
CT

Monday, September 27, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / Weekly Trading Zones

(QQQQ)(.SPX)(SPY)(DIA)(GLD) 
Our Weekly Trading Zones are emailed to members prior to the open every Monday. I will refrain from waxing eloquent tonight about today's touch and go at 1137 as we'll be sure to cover it well on tomorrow's show. I will say this much... it was a thing of beauty, eh? Suitable for framing...

Tune in tomorrow from 11AM-4PM Eastern for live charts, lively discussion and live trades. Non-members Register Here

Weekly Trading Zones
Sunday - September 26, 2010
 
S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES
1183/1184
1159/1160
1151/1152
1136/1137
1127/1128
1112/1113
1088/1089

Dow Emini Futures / YM
11,113
10,922
10,851
10,731
10,660
10,540
10,340

Euro FX / 6E
1.3810/15
1.3620/25
1.3555
1.3425/30
1.3360/65
1.3235/40
1.3045


Weekly Trading Zones / Daily Review

S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES
Dow Emini Futures / YM
Euro FX / 6E
Thanks to one of our new listeners in Scottsdale for sharing this excellent resource. Enjoy!


Pray Hard & Trade Safe!
CT

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Emini Futures / Live Trading Room

 
 

 Remember how that whole online trading thing was supposed to be your ticket to freedom?






Come Visit the "CFRN Live Trading Room"
Join us Monday through Friday from 11am - 4pm Eastern in our Live Trading Room for Strategy Sessions with some of America's top traders and market professionals. Members have access to our daily broadcast and live charts every trading day. Drop in, ask questions, meet some nice people who trade for a living - Click Here.  

Once you register, you will immediately receive the current week's Link and Password.
Trading is not easy, but it can be simple.

Need a Simulator?
Need Indicators that Work?


Try our State of the Art Platform with Live Data Feed -
Step #1) Download the dtPro platform by clicking below.

dt Pro Trial - Futures Trading Software Demo
Step #2) Install the CF_Indicator Set from the dtPro Indicator Store.

Step #3) Log in and see how we use them.


 
Tips, Ideas, S/R levels  
Ready to stop dreaming and start trading?
Step into the Future of Futures and Become a Member today!

As always,
Pray Hard & Trade Safe!
CT

The Coming Economic Armageddon

This Week’s Television Broadcast

The New World Order | Week of September 26, 2010

The Coming Economic Armageddon Study Guide
Chaos and crisis are breeding grounds for revolution, the rise of despotic leaders, and totalitarian governments. Such changes have taken place many times in history, but never at an international level. Current calls for a new world order violate God's plan for nation-states.
Watch this week's broadcast


ABOUT THE CURRENT TELEVISION SERIES
Every mother knows this about births: They are unpredictable; each one is different. There’s another birth―the only one of its kind in history―that is coming due soon, and its timing will be unpredictable as well: the birth of the kingdom of God on earth. Jesus Christ is coming back to earth to establish His kingdom to rule and reign as King of Kings and Lord of Lords for one thousand years.

Even though we don’t know exactly when the specific events leading up to the birth of the kingdom will take place―events like the Rapture of the Church, followed by the seven-year Tribulation―we will experience “birth pangs” that tell us the time is drawing near. Every mother knows “that feeling” that comes with the onset of labor, the pains that tell her the blessed event is drawing nigh. And it will be the same with the coming kingdom of God: pain and discomfort on a global scale―“groans and labors with birth pangs” (Romans 8:22). 

The world began experiencing discomfort in a serious way in 2008―economic birth pangs causing unprecedented degrees of pain and suffering around the world. And as of the publishing of this study guide, the pains show no signs...

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / When The Moon Is In the 7th House

and Jupiter aligns with Mars........

OK, that may be how the song went so many summers ago, but it has little if anything to do with September 21, 2010. It came, it went, and it was pretty quiet. Why did I even bring it up on the radio program? I'll get to that in a moment. First it's a great segway into discussing an ongoing division amongst Christians and the world at large in regards to whether or not heavenly bodies have any ability to impact life here on earth. It's pretty easy to shoot holes in the whole astrology business, just ask Carl Sagan.

Even if we weren't faced with the Biblical stance on the subject (which we are), you have to ask yourself, after thousands of years is there any evidence whatsoever that the theory of Astrology works? In other words, can it actually be used to predict the future?

We can perform a simple experiment using economics -
Astrologers should be rich.

If they know anything about the future they would have an edge. But this is not the case. Assuming that astrologers like to make money, they seem not to be able to profit from their own craft.  If they could predict the future even in a vague way, they would become rich by playing the futures or the stock market. But as astrologers they get most of their income from selling charts. Now I've known quite a few of these folks in my day, and they all had at least two things in common. They loved money and they were almost constantly broke.

It is no secret that the scientific field of astronomy and its incorrigible cousin astrology have a common beginning. Many of the great astronomers of history owe their ability to conduct research to wealthy patrons who paid for astrological readings. Today, however, the two fields could hardly be farther apart.

The Discovery Channel is now reporting that "One of the largest studies of the possible link between human traits and astrology found little, if any, connection between the traditional sun signs of the zodiac and characteristics of individuals."

Conducted by Peter Hartmann, a researcher in the Department of Psychology at Denmark's University of Aarhus, the study used computer modeling and statistical analysis to study possible astrological connections between over 15,000 individuals. While leaving open the possibility of effectiveness by more personal forms of astrology, Hartmann said, "When considering the current scientific standing with respect to sun signs, it becomes clear that there is little or no truth in sun signs."

So if the moon being in the 7th house can't actually predict that "love will fill the air", how can it control the tides? Scientifically we know that it has to do with gravity even though the moon itself is roughly some 221,463 miles away. Now the oceans are very large bodies of water but then so are we. Right? Lean muscle tissue contains about 75% water by weight. Blood contains almost 70% water, body fat contains 10% water and bone has 22% water. Skin also contains much water. The human body is about 60% water in adult males and 55% in adult females. This is where Astrology and Astronomy really become two different issues.

One is Science while the other lends to a form of creation worship which is in direct conflict with the Bible edict of Creator worship. There is a big difference and it is a big deal. At least in my humble opinion.

If you have any lingering questions about Astrology (not Astronomy) read this. 

"When I see Your heavens, the work of Your fingers, the moon and stars that You set in place - What are humans that You are mindful of them? Mere mortals that You care for them?" 
PSALM 8: 4-5

Great question David. So glad you asked. I highly encourage you to watch this video sent to me by one of our listeners. I'm fairly confident there is information here you may not be familiar with -
 
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Better catch Jupiter September 21st. It won't be that big or bright again until 2022. Jupiter will pass 368 million miles from Earth late Monday, its closest approach since 1963. You can see it low in the east around dusk. Around midnight, it will be directly overhead. That's because Earth will be passing between Jupiter and the sun, into the wee hours of Tuesday.
The solar system's largest planet already appears as an incredibly bright star — three times brighter than the brightest star in the sky, Sirius. The only thing brighter in the night sky right now is our moon. Binoculars and telescopes will dramatically improve the view as Jupiter, along with its many moons, rises in the east as the sun sets.
"Jupiter is so bright right now, you don't need a sky map to find it," said Tony Phillips, a California astronomer under contract with NASA. "You just walk outside and see it. It's so eye-catching, there it is."
Phillips has never seen Jupiter so bright. "To an experienced observer, the difference is notable," he said Friday.
Coincidentally, Uranus also will make a close approach the same night. It will appear close to Jupiter but harder to see with the naked eye. Through a telescope, it will shine like an emerald-colored disk less than one degree from Jupiter.
Jupiter comes relatively close to Earth about every 12 years. In 1999, it passed slightly farther away. What's rare this time is Uranus making a close appearance at the same time, Phillips said. He called it "a once-in-a-lifetime event." While seen right next to Jupier through a telescope, Uranus actually will be 1.7 billion miles from Earth on Monday night.
Phillips urges stargazers not to give up if it's cloudy Monday night. Jupiter will remain relatively close for many weeks, he noted, providing good viewing opportunities for some time. And for those who are early risers instead of night owls, Jupiter will be visible setting in the west just before sunrise.
___
Online:


When was the last time Jupiter passed this close?

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / Page Trader Webinar

Thursday September 23, 2010


 

Page Trader Webinar - Did you attend today's webinar with David Williams? Are you excited? Ready to learn more? You can see it and hear it, Live in Real Time, every trading day. We invite you to join us and bring your questions. Gain complete access to our live audio broadcast and live charts. See for yourself just how simple trading can be. I didn't say easy, just simple. To join us tomorrow with no obligation whatsoever - Click Here Your link and password will show up within minutes.




Potential 24 point move on the December S&P 500 Emini Contract.
Yesterday, September 22nd, we posted a chart that outlined a potential descending price channel forming inside of the then current ascending price channel. 

 Es Emini

The ascending price channel had been trending for 8 consecutive trading days. Confirmation of a change in direction was confirmed last night during the Globex session off the London open.

Es Emini

Typically we only trade intra-day. There are occasions however, when a larger type set-up appears and we are willing to trade on the overnight given the proper set of conditions. We believe that just such a situation is at hand. The following trade idea is an example of the use of our Weekly Trading Zones and our own proprietary trading methodology. We are also utilizing some of the information that David has shared with our listeners over the past week and which he also mentioned in today's webinar. We will discuss the outcome on tomorrow's program.

We will sell the 1123/1124 Weekly Trading Zone on a pullback highlighted by the white X on the chart above. Our target for this trade is 1100. Our stop will be placed just above the top of the price channel (upper red trend line) which also currently lines up with our 1129/1130 Weekly Zone. The risk to reward ratio on this trade is quite favorable in our opinion. Price will need to rally slightly in order for this trade to fill. If by the London open our entry criteria has not been met, we will re-evaluate the trade idea. 

Disclaimer - Trading is risky and you can lose ALL your money!

We will update further once the trade is underway.

Join us for Live Market Commentary M-F from 11am-1pm Eastern. To view our Live Charts during the broadcast Click Here


Pray Hard & Trade Safe!
CT


Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / Garrett Jones Special Alert

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)(.SPX)

Wednesday September 22, 2010
Price on the December S&P 500 Emini contract continues to be constrained within the 1138/1139 Weekly Trading Zone on the upside and the 1129/1130 Zone on the downside. We have traded in an ascending channel for the past 8 trading days. At the close of today's session, price was testing the lower Weekly Zone of 1129/1130 and the bottom of the price channel as well. On the 30 minute chart posted below we have outlined what appears to be a descending price channel forming. The ascending channel is highlighted in green and the potential descending channel is highlighted in red. The greatest profit potential avails itself when a transition of this nature can be identified early in its formation.



Garrett Jones Long Wave Cycle Special Alert
SPECIAL ALERT

DANGER: The danger signal implies HIGH RISK for the market at the current level.
In my view, we are still in a secular bear market and currently at a point of extremely high risk. We have now passed the period of seasonal strength for the year – a time when spirits are high and the market performs better than at any other time on a historic basis. A study in the December 2002 issue of the American Economic Review reported that the average stock market returns from Halloween through May Day (the so-called "winter" months) were significantly higher than equity returns from May Day through Halloween (the "summer months"). The findings were that the summer months' returns have averaged so much less than those of the winter months that almost all of the stock market's long-term returns have been produced during the winter months. The obvious implication is that simply going to cash between May Day and Halloween will have only minor impact on long-term returns while dramatically reducing risk.

I was going to change the above barometric-like message. Its purpose is to give you a general ‘big picture’ viewpoint of where we are in the Long Wave cycle (and stock market). Over time, the above message blends in and becomes invisible. I know this from personal experience. The important messages are those that first warn of a major turn (either up or down) and then the follow-up warnings that focus on the nearness of that turn. There were (arguably) three big turns in the past 3 years – the October 2007 top, the March 2009 bottom and the recent April 2010 top. This Alert and the Sequence of Events in the Cycle report warned you of each. It is those ‘larger’ turns that make a difference.

The lesser twists and turns of the market are far more difficult to call. They are the ‘noise’ of the market. As they say, “they don’t ring a bell at the top”. That’s pretty clear because if they did, the 83.5% loss in the NASDAQ 100 following the market top in 2000 and the 57.7% collapse in the S&P 500 following the 2007 top wouldn’t have been a big deal because everyone would have sidestepped them. I mention those two historic market tops because the bulk of investors were focused on technology stocks prior to the 2000 top and the bulk of investors were focused on the S&P 500 at the 2007 top. Those who were hurt by technology stocks in 2000 got “smart” and moved to the more stable S&P 500 stocks in 2007 … only to capture the largest decline in that index in 77 years. Are these same people now heavily invested in the market?

I have had the bearish barometer on since the 2007 top. I know that some people are troubled by that warning and don’t understand it in the spirit it is intended. I am focusing on the big picture and where we are in the Long Wave cycle. That cycle is defined by many decades of debt build up and then it is completed by a period of debt destruction. If you want to compare it to the seasons, that is a rational comparison. Coming out of the last cycle (The Great Depression), confidence needed to be built up to get the business cycle going – that part of the cycle would compare with Spring. Once the fear subsided and confidence is in full swing, a strong period of growth emerges and debt is increased to provide capital to fuel that growth – that would be Summer. The growth becomes robust and moves to a point of maximum production and debt also moves to approach a maximum level – that is Autumn and time for harvest. Production has already peaked and debt has moved to a degree where it has curtailed growth and is imploding on itself – that would be Winter.

Mankind lives through the above cycle over and over – yet he fails to recognize it and those who attempt to warn others are ignored or vilified … until proven correct – which is a hollow victory as it is ignored by the public at large. The reason is simple … it’s in our DNA. You can have the best argument imaginable and back it with an incredible set of facts … it just doesn’t matter, the message will be ignored. Why? Because that is the way it is supposed to be … it’s just ‘in the cards’, as they say. The financial news media, the talking heads as well as some highly recognized names (economists, money managers, etc.) will all buy into the ‘fact’ that the bottom is in. I was told a long time ago by a very wise gentleman who lived through the depression that “more people lose more money attempting to buy perceived bottoms after major cycle tops than those who were caught fully invested at the top.” That’s probably good information to keep in mind – I think there are a number of early real estate buyers who can attest to the accuracy of that comment. 

"What’s going on with the stock market?"
For the complete Special Alert along with charts - Click Here




Weekly Trading Zones / Daily Review
(to enlarge - click caption below chart)

S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES

Dow Emini Futures / YM

Euro FX / 6E

Join us Monday through Friday in the "Chart Room" for Live Strategy Sessions with some of America's top traders. Members have access to our daily broadcast and live charts every trading day. If you would like to become a member of the CFRN family Click Here.  Once you are registered you will immediately receive the current Link and Password. In the future, you will receive the Weekly Link and Password plus our Weekly Trading Zones, via email prior to the open every Monday morning. Welcome Aboard!

Pray Hard & Trade Safe!
CT


 

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / Gold Rallies on FOMC

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(GLD)($SPX)
Tuesday September 21, 2010
Clearly the FOMC Interest rate announcement did not provide the volatility spike we've come to expect over the past years. To call today's move anemic would be akin to calling Richard Simmons cheerful. The range of the spike was a mere 13 points. Spike low 1130.75 / spike high 1144. Once the confetti settled price was just about back where it started. Today's close on the December S&P 500 Emini contract was 1134.75. The open this morning was 1138.25. If we weed out the noise the true range on the day was 3.5 points. I'm tempted to use the term "snooze fest" but I will refrain as that would make the second time in 2 weeks and that's just financial journalism gone bad. I will say this though, the 1138/1139 Weekly Trading Zone held the uptrend at bay yesterday, and again today on 3 separate occasions, all clearly seen on the 30 min chart posted below. We also have an ascending price channel in place which has held now for the 7th straight trading day. Both yesterday and today we pierced the upper trend line as well as the WTZ, and price was promptly rejected both times. Has this market run out of steam? Perhaps the indices have but today's brilliant performance in the Gold market was both visually stunning as well as fundamentally telling.

Gold - The New Rock Star
The price of gold spiked dramatically right around 2:15 PM ET today, as the Fed mentioned the words "quantitative easing", and left the door open for future asset purchases by the central bank. The result was a rush out of the dollar, and into a myriad of other assets. But gold's move was by far the most dramatic.
FOMC Gold Rally

So what does "quantitative easing" really mean and why should you even care?
The term quantitative easing (QE) describes a monetary policy used by central banks to increase the supply of money by increasing the excess reserves of the banking system. This policy is usually invoked when the normal methods to control the money supply have failed, i.e the bank interest rate, discount rate and/or interbank interest rate are either at, or close to, zero.

A central bank implements QE by first crediting its own account with money it has created ex nihilo ("out of nothing"). It then purchases financial assets, including government bonds, mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds, from banks and other financial institutions in a process referred to as open market operations. The purchases, by way of account deposits, give banks the excess reserves required for them to create new money, and thus a hopeful stimulation of the economy, by the process of deposit multiplication from increased lending in the fractional reserve banking system.
Risks include... (Read more at Wikipedia)

In plain speak it simply means "Fire up the printing press, we need more money". This my friend, is why Gold investors love Bernanke and why it probably won't end well for the U.S. economy.

Our old friend Alan Greenspan had this to say last week as he addressed the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
"At this stage of the game,
'Fiat money has no place to go but gold."


Weekly Trading Zones  / Daily Review

S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES
Dow Emini Futures / YM
Euro FX / 6E
Join us Live M-F from 11am-1pm Eastern. Click Here

Pray Hard & Trade Safe!
CT

Monday, September 20, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / Weekly Trading Zones - FOMC

Monday September 20, 2010
Bullish Run Ahead of Fed Anouncement 


The December S&P 500 Emini Contract opened slightly lower on Globex Sunday evening, turned up and never really looked back. Our Weekly Trading Zones presented two good pulback entries at 1123/1124 and 1129/1130. The session peaked at the next Weekly Zone 1138/1139. Japan opens in less than 3 hours. By tomorrow morning we should know if we have a real breakout or if what we saw today had more to do with short covering at the 1130 break. Are the Bulls are prepared to turn history on its ear?


Today's Audio Broadcast

Weekly Trading Zones
Mailed to members prior to the open every Monday.

S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES
1154/1155
1138/1139
1129/1130
1123/1124
1113/1114
1107/1108
1091/1092

Dow Emini Futures / YM
10,816
10,685
10,610
10,554
10,479
10,423
10,292

Euro FX / 6E
1.3350/55
1.3210/15
1.3125/30
1.3070/75
1.2990/95
1.2930/35
1.2790/95


Weekly Trading Zones / Daily Review 

S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES
Dow Emini / YM
Euro FX / 6E
 

Pray Hard & Trade Safe!
CT