Thursday, September 30, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / End Of Quarter

Last night from our post way out in Limbville, we surmised that perhaps today's sheer magnitude of economic data and Fed-speak, would somehow rouse the slumbering giant out of its range bound stupor of the past week or more. We officially stated "Watch for a break on the upside of our 1151/1152 Weekly Trading Zone" followed by, (in perfect financial journalistic prose I might add...) " or a breakdown of our 1136/1137 Zone". We know we're good, buy how many times can an analyst be correct in the course of one day? In this case, every time, and that's a problem. Problem? Look where we ended the session, right back in Snoozeville. So far tonight on Globex, the trend line on our 30 minute chart is still in play.Tomorrow morning we get the ISM numbers at 10:00am Eastern. 

This economic report is considered to be a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy. The report is put together by surveying about 400 purchasing managers and asking them to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Depending on which 400 they ask, determines the bias of the report we get. Either way this is considered a High Impact report and the numbers are released 30 minutes after the opening bell, not pre-market. Trade with caution until the numbers are released and the market has time to digest them.

Today marked the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2010. Any "window dressing" or "hold 'em up" theories must be laid to rest for another 90 days. Now, we get the "fresh money coming in at the first of the month theory". If you have not read Garrett Jones work or listened to the webinar we did with him, I encourage you to do so. Even though Garrett has a doomsday outlook of Biblical proportions for the market overall, he's still a buyer. In fact, he and his partner via their money management firm, only buy for their clients the first 3 days of the month. I'm not saying they never take profits, they simply don't sell short. At least they haven't over the past 20 years. And they do all their buying the first 3 days. I said that out loud right? And after all these years... they're still in business.

Now as you know, we're a bit bearish all things considered. Our friend David Williams is looking for a 72 point drop in the S&P, and tomorrow's the first day of October. So who wins? If we love God, love people, and simply trade what's in front of us... we all do.

No Podcast Tonight / Technical Glitch

Weekly Trading Zones / Daily Review 
S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES
Dow Emini Futures / YM
Euro FX / 6E

Pray Hard & Trade Safe!

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