Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / Jobless Claims Potential Game Changer

From the Trading Desk of CFRN...

This morning the focus was on the ADP report that showed Private Employers cut 39,000 jobs in September.  Analysts had optimistically forecast additions of 24,000. Manufacturing cuts were viewed as the most disappointing.  The ADP jobs data was supportive to the US T-Bonds climbing to 135^12. The Crude Oil market had risen to $84.09 after the EIA government report showing inventory was down. Strikes in France’s largest oil port also helped support the energy sector. The weaker US Dollar also lends support to the Crude Oil and other tangible products. Stocks and Bonds may move inversely often, but with the high unemployment and looser monetary policy, they may move in sync for a short time. 

Timothy Geithner made a statement urging Global Institutions to encourage countries such as China to allow its Yuan to rise. The United States has encouraged the IMF (International Monetary Fund) to monitor to prevent manipulation. Currency stabilization is a definite equation in the recovery of our economy.   

Technically, the E-Mini S&P 500 may be approaching overbought territory, but the trend is still up. We regard support at $1146.00. Hard support is found at $1130.00, below that deck, we go into a sell mode on the daily chart. The high of $1160.00 was touched 5 times on my 5 minute chart and failed to penetrate. This is a critical juncture for this market. Initial Jobless Claims hits the news wires at 7:30 AM CST and that could be the game changer. If we have better than expected results, the Stock Indices could forge into some new highs. If we have worse than expected readings, the market could either shrug it off or plummet to a potential $1120.00.  Friday, we have the Unemployment Report that could potentially be the major retracement that many analysts have spoken about summer through this fall. 

“Success is just being ready when the window of opportunity opens” 

L. Burton / CFRN 

Buckle up.

As I type this, a flurry of activity is taking place within security and financial circles around the world. Normally, this would signify just another busy day in the hard-working quarters of modern defence and finance, however this time there is good reason to suspect that the world may be about to witness something historic.

If not something violent, then certainly something spectacular.

I’m not going to waste time on a long, detailed post. Instead, I’m going to present the data, the facts and the patterns. Then I’m going to make you make up your own mind.

First are the financial movements that preceded the security movements, starting with the CNN Money report on October 1st, which shows an unusual .15 yield on treasury bonds. Basically, investors are betting big time on ‘you know what’ hitting the fan shortly. (read more)

Pray Hard & Trade Safe!

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