from the trading desk of CFRN...
Weak close, weak open? We had a bit of an inside day today with a high of $1205.75 and a low of $1192.50 in the E-Mini S&P500. US Business Inventories rose .9% in September. US Retail Sales were up 1.2% which going into the Christmas Holiday Season is vital to our business communities. NY Fed Manufacturing Growth declined to -11.1 in November.
At 10:45, we were trading at $1205.75 and by the close, the market sunk to $1195.75. The market stayed in the CFRN Weekly Trade Zone of $1198.00 - $1199.00 and touched $1205.00 - $1206.00.
The US Dollar Index was up today hitting a high of $78.86. In light of the US Economic Reports being fairly unpredictable along with the debt woes still circulating in Ireland and Portugal, it is difficult to see the E-Mini S&P 500 breaking through the cap of $1225.00 anytime soon. Bulls are bound to tire in the midst of criticism of the Feds Monetary Policy by Russia and China as of late.
If we do not see a resolution for the sovereign debt problems, they could hold our E-Mini S&P 500 under for awhile. San Francisco Federal Reserve Research Director John Williams made commentary on our slow economic recovery, stating that is too slow for consumers and businesses to regain confidence. Tomorrow, we look forward to PPI, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production. Can we have a turn-around Tuesday? Yes, we can, but will we in the face of the higher dollar and slipping Euro FX?
The trend remains down, but traders await direction from the US Dollar. A stronger dollar could pressure many of the tangible markets such as the E-Mini S&P 500, the Metals and Energies. $1199.00 appears to be a point of control or comfort zone for the market. Should we breach the $1225.00 zone, our CFRN Weekly Trade Zone gives us $1231.00 - $1232.00. If we stay capped, our CFRN Weekly Trade Zones are $1215.00 - $1216.00, $1205.00, $1206.00. We may find the CFRN Weekly Trade Zone $1199.00 - $1198.00 the point of control for the Market. Should we slip, the CFRN Weekly Trade Zones are $1187.00 - $1188.00 and $1181.00 - $1182.00.
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