Monday, December 13, 2010

Emini Futures Trade Higher Into FOMC Meeting


from the trading desk of CFRN...
The E-Mini S&P 500 (March) coiled in a fairly decent range today, with some basic chart patterns that were classic and easy to read. By 1:45 PM CST, the double top appeared on the 5 minute chart and the $1242.00 CFRN Weekly Trading Zone became resistance. The 1232 low of the session was in place by 7:35 PM CST Sunday Night, 1 point below the1233/1234 WTZ. Once the clock struck midnight, the official low of the day for today - Monday Dec. 13th, 2010, was 1234 to the tick. It's now Monday evening or the beginning of Tuesday's session and price is now back to 1234.75 or 3 ticks above the WTZ 1233/1234. Zone to Zone to Zone, or If you were actually trading today - ZZZ's.

China tightened its monetary policy perhaps slowing its economic growth, but such a move should be temporary in that it raised interest rates in October requiring banks to have three times the reserve ratio of excess funds. Their exchanges also went through some changes in increased margin or cash reserves for speculation and perhaps they may increase the contract sizes to only allow for large accounts. This would discourage their small investors from entering the markets.

The Financial Times mentioned that the Euro Zone may be allocating some the 440 billion Euros from the rescue package to buy bonds from countries in duress. The rescue continues! The extended Tax Cuts discussed by President Barack Obama should be announced shortly as the program has been labeled “give-away to the rich”. This move should be regarded as bullish for the E-Mini S&P 500.

After climbing to a new recent high today the E-Mini S&P 500 may be due for a pause or slight retracement. Volume alone may decline and the lack of bulls may cause a pause.

Tomorrow is packed with economic reports!Business Inventories 7:30 AM CST 
PPI 7:30 AM CST 
Retail Sales 7:30 AM CST 
FOMC Meeting 

Here... let me draw you a picture - 

S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES
The trend is now higher for the near term on the March E-Mini S&P 500. We have many reports due out tomorrow with potentially positive results, yet we know that a pause or retracement is still healthy for a market achieving new recent highs every week. With slack volume this month, will there be enough bullish traders to keep the upward and onward course? Stay tuned, more hot air to come...

Triumphs without difficulties are empty. Indeed, it is difficulties that make the triumph. It is no feat to travel the smooth road. - Unknown

Market Profile Numbers for 12/10/10
VAH -  1241.50
POC - 1240.50
VAL -  1238.50

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