Thursday, December 02, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / In Play - Daily Market Top


from the trading desk of CFRN... 

Cha Ching!! Cha Ching!! After a sluggish start this morning from a disappointing weekly claims figure (increase by 26,000), the SP EMINI finished another +1.28% higher to close at 1222.75(ESZ10) putting the bulls firmly in charge. Gears shifted when some of the retail stores reported better than expected holiday sales and the National Association of Realtors reported the pending home sales index climbed 10.4% in October. Also creating a foundation for the US markets is the stability overseas. Europe seems to have its debt situation under control and North and South Korea are playing nicely at least for the moment.

Another piece of the puzzle...Tomorrow all eyes will be on the November Unemployment Report slated to be released at 730am cst. The street is expecting payrolls to rise about 150,000-190,000 beating the October levels. If the payrolls match or exceed expectation we could the SP EMINI finish the week in record fashion.

So what does the future hold? Technically If we stay on the same path we're on, support or a buying opportunity would been seen at the 1213/1214 Weekly Trading Zone(WTZ) in the SP EMINI. With a bearish unemployment report, the market could shake some weak longs out of the market and drop the SP EMINI to the 1202/1200 level. I would consider any dips a “buying opportunity” unless the weekly gains are trumped. Over head the next stop is the 1225.00 level or the Nov. 19th high. The shorts will try to defend this level, if they succumb to the pressure with stop losses and short covering the next stop is the .618% retracement level from the Oct 07’ hi to the March 665.75 low set back in 2009. Depending how sharp your pencil is that should place the SP EMINI at the 1239/1241 level.

Keep in mind that price not only traded above our highest Weekly Trading Zone today, it closed above. If price should close tomorrow above the WTZ 1213/1214, it will mark an extremely rare occurence. One final thing to take note of, today December 2nd is the on time day for a market top per our daily guest David Williams of PageTrader. His ability to forecast market turning points is uncanny. This is a daily turning point and should be accurate, plus or minus one unit of time. In this case the unit is a day. It can't be a day early, it may have been today, but if we do in fact put in a higher high tomorrow, the opportunity to enter a position for a multi day decline will be most compelling. Although not a Weekly Trading Zone, keep a close eye on 1125/1126.

You can't build a reputation on what you are going to do.
Henry Ford

Market Profile Numbers for 12/03/10
VAH    1221.25
POC   1218.25
VAL    1215.25

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