Saturday, December 04, 2010

Emini Futures Trading / Markets Rally On Weak Jobs Data


from the trading desk of CFRN... 
Surprise! Or is it? Minutes before the highly anticipated Unemployment Report the Dec. SP EMINI was pushing new highs because many market experts were forecasting a better than expected Payrolls number.  The general word on the street was 150,000-160,000 jump in payrolls.  At 0730 cst the Payroll number was announced and SURPRISE! a slim 39,000 jobs were created for the month of November and the rate jumped to 9.8% from the 9.6% level in October.  Jobs were lost in the retail, factory and government sector while temporary jobs were created. The SP EMINI market plunged to the Weekly Trading Zone(WTZ) 1213/1214, the support level noted in Thursday's report. By the end of the day, reactions were mixed, speculation of a revision next month calmed traders and the market ended the day higher and almost 3% higher for the week.

Technically were still on a path to go higher unless something drastically changes.  A change in my opinion would be a drop under the 1190.00 area.  Till then, we will continue to buy dips till something changes and with the finish today the next major resistance level should be the 1239/1241 level in the DEC SP EMINI (noted in Thursday’s report).  Now let’s put the SP EMINI under a microscope.  Look at the hourly chart, there still is a bearish engulfing pattern present.  If we continue to trade under the 1227.25 level or today’s high there is a chance of a market sell off over the weekend or Monday.  The measurement if we take out the 1213 level in my opinion will be the 1201/1200 level or a prior Weekly Trading Zone (WTZ).  Point being, if you’re an aggressive trader you can sell the SP EMINI in this range or around today’s close however you should have a stop loss at or above today’s high.  With patience I would recommend selling the SP EMINI against the 1239/1241 level the first time up, keep an eye on your CFRN Indicators for a potential set-up at this level.

Weekly Zones Week In Review 

S&P 500 Emini Futures / ES

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